Threat - 5
Violence and Wars
Clash of Civilizations
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“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” |
20th Century - The Bloodiest Century In Human History Industrialization of War & Violence
Savagery, much attributed to the ‘old world’ is not entirely absent in the ‘new world’ but rather it is more prevalent than ever before. Western civilization has made the 20th century the bloodiest century in human history. This civilization witnessed, besides the two most brutal World Wars, the worst acts of barbarism - holocaust, Gulag concentration camps, genocides and atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Industrialization of wars and violence in this century led to killing of more than 350 million people, directly and indirectly. Science and technology led to discovery and mass usage of many lethal weapons. Usage of petroleum expanded the war zone to include several continents. Localized battles of ‘old world’ turned into global World wars.
But world wars haven’t stopped for a moment. World has not seen respite from war. Since second World war, the list of nations invaded and occupied by the US is long, the list of nations with governments overthrown is longer. Latest in the news is a place called Iraq and prison systems that includes places like Guantanamo Bay.
There is an arsenal of more than 50,000 nuclear missiles that can destroy the planet several times over. Industrial Society is collectively making millions of tonnes of weapons and explosives of all kinds every year – and then it wonders why there is so much violence in this world. Well, if we make millions of tonnes of weapons and explosives on earth they are going to be used on earth – they are not going to be used on Mars.
But world wars haven’t stopped for a moment. World has not seen respite from war. Since second World war, the list of nations invaded and occupied by the US is long, the list of nations with governments overthrown is longer. Latest in the news is a place called Iraq and prison systems that includes places like Guantanamo Bay.
There is an arsenal of more than 50,000 nuclear missiles that can destroy the planet several times over. Industrial Society is collectively making millions of tonnes of weapons and explosives of all kinds every year – and then it wonders why there is so much violence in this world. Well, if we make millions of tonnes of weapons and explosives on earth they are going to be used on earth – they are not going to be used on Mars.
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... no nation is rich enough to pay for both war and civilization. We must make our choice; we cannot have both.” |
If we honestly apply the definition of terrorism, we would find that the entire industrial society is a terrorist, the entire military-industrial-complex, with accompanying science and technology is a terrorist. So called terrorists are small time terrorists and dons of military-industrial complex are big time terrorists, but terrorists none the less. Just like when Alexander invaded India, his soldiers caught hold of a thief. He was duly produced before Alexander. On being charged, the thief enquired, “what is the difference between you and me? I am a small thief and you are a big thief. I operate alone and you operate with an army of thousands.” Alexander had to agree with him and set him free.
It was not possible to have world wars 1000 years ago where you could kill 50 million innocent citizens. World Wars became possible only when science and technology developed aeroplanes, ships and other carriers which could transport millions of troops and millions of tonnes of weapons from one corner of the globe to the other.
And today one doesn't even need all these paraphernalia to fight a war. One just needs to move finger-tips to launch missiles that can destroy the planet several times over.
It was not possible to have world wars 1000 years ago where you could kill 50 million innocent citizens. World Wars became possible only when science and technology developed aeroplanes, ships and other carriers which could transport millions of troops and millions of tonnes of weapons from one corner of the globe to the other.
And today one doesn't even need all these paraphernalia to fight a war. One just needs to move finger-tips to launch missiles that can destroy the planet several times over.
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Just like great scientists have discovered the atom bomb, by scientific research. What is the effect? Now by one drop you can kill many millions of people. That is his advancement of science. "Oh, why don't you create something that people will not die?" That is not... "I can assure death, but I cannot save death. That is not in my power." Then what kind of scientist you are? |
Right at this moment there are several countries fighting wars with one another. There is internal war going on in almost half of the countries in the world. All these wars are being fuelled and sustained by billions of tonnes of weapons produced by the Military-industrial complex every year. An impressive array of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons are waiting to be dropped on our heads. What has been produced at great cost and is being stored with great care, is certainly meant for use and will be used one day.
The Five Minute Decision That Averted Nuclear War Cold War’s Riskiest Moment
On January 19, 2006, a forgotten soldier, Stanislav Petrov was honored at a special ceremony held at the United Nations in New York City. Stanislav Petrov spoke at the UN and was presented with a World Citizen Trophy for his heroic decision in 1983 that has earned him the title of “The Man Who averted nuclear War.”
This refers to the incident on September 26, 1983, when Lieutenant Colonel Petrov was the duty officer at Serpuk-hov-15, the Soviet Union’s main command bunker just south of Moscow. He was in charge of 120 men with the responsibility of monitoring incoming signals from satellites when suddenly nightmare became reality as the warning system reported the soviet union was under attack by US Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.
It’s important to note that this was a period of high tension between the United States and the Soviet Union. President Ronald Reagan was calling the Soviets the “Evil Empire.” The Russian military had shot down a Korean passenger jet just three weeks before this incident and the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were organizing a joint military exercise in Europe.
This refers to the incident on September 26, 1983, when Lieutenant Colonel Petrov was the duty officer at Serpuk-hov-15, the Soviet Union’s main command bunker just south of Moscow. He was in charge of 120 men with the responsibility of monitoring incoming signals from satellites when suddenly nightmare became reality as the warning system reported the soviet union was under attack by US Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.
It’s important to note that this was a period of high tension between the United States and the Soviet Union. President Ronald Reagan was calling the Soviets the “Evil Empire.” The Russian military had shot down a Korean passenger jet just three weeks before this incident and the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were organizing a joint military exercise in Europe.
If you kill one person they call it murder.
If you kill a few hundred they call it terrorism.
If you kill a few million they call it war.
~Unknown
In an interview, held the day after the UN award ceremony, Petrov talked about that fateful night when the red button beamed “sTarT” along with flashing lights and a huge map of the united states with a US base lit up showing that the missiles had been launched.
Petrov’s duty was to report the attack to command head-quarters, where an immediate counterattack could have been initiated. For five minutes, however, in the midst of chaos and the prospect of total destruction, petrov held a phone in one hand and an intercom in the other as the lights on his console continued to flash that a missile attack was on the way. Petrov believed in his heart that, contrary to what the high tech equipment was reporting, this alarm was an error. Petrov then made his historic decision and called his Kremlin liaison to report that it was a false alarm.
But Colonel petrov didn’t know for certain this was a false alarm. He later said, “I made a decision and that was it.” It was only after fifteen to twenty agonizing minutes passed, as he waited to detect if US missiles were incoming, that Petrov’s decision proved correct. It was a system error that had signaled the attack. In his interview with the British Daily Mail newspaper, Petrov said that in principle
“a nuclear war could have broken out, the whole world could have been destroyed.”
Dr. Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense information, a leading expert on nuclear weapons and a former Minuteman missile launch officer said: “I think this is the closest we’ve come to accidental nuclear war.”
The catastrophic danger Petrov faced in 1983 is still with us today as four thousand US and Russian nuclear warheads are on hair-trigger alert, ready for launch on a few minutes notice and would destroy both countries in an hour. Such a doomsday scenario could result from an accidental missile launch, a system error, or a miscalculation.
Petrov’s duty was to report the attack to command head-quarters, where an immediate counterattack could have been initiated. For five minutes, however, in the midst of chaos and the prospect of total destruction, petrov held a phone in one hand and an intercom in the other as the lights on his console continued to flash that a missile attack was on the way. Petrov believed in his heart that, contrary to what the high tech equipment was reporting, this alarm was an error. Petrov then made his historic decision and called his Kremlin liaison to report that it was a false alarm.
But Colonel petrov didn’t know for certain this was a false alarm. He later said, “I made a decision and that was it.” It was only after fifteen to twenty agonizing minutes passed, as he waited to detect if US missiles were incoming, that Petrov’s decision proved correct. It was a system error that had signaled the attack. In his interview with the British Daily Mail newspaper, Petrov said that in principle
“a nuclear war could have broken out, the whole world could have been destroyed.”
Dr. Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense information, a leading expert on nuclear weapons and a former Minuteman missile launch officer said: “I think this is the closest we’ve come to accidental nuclear war.”
The catastrophic danger Petrov faced in 1983 is still with us today as four thousand US and Russian nuclear warheads are on hair-trigger alert, ready for launch on a few minutes notice and would destroy both countries in an hour. Such a doomsday scenario could result from an accidental missile launch, a system error, or a miscalculation.
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The nexus between modern science and violence is obvious from the fact that eighty per cent of all scientific research is devoted to the war industry and is frankly aimed at large-scale violence. In our times, this violence is directed not only against enemy fighting forces but also against civilian populations. I argue that modern science is violent even in peaceful domains such as, for example, health care and agriculture, where the professed objective of scientific research is not violence but human welfare. |
Global Trends 2025 - A Dangerous World 121 Page Presidential Report Predicts Global Catastrophe
The use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely by 2025, US intelligence warned in a report on global trends that forecasts a tense, unstable world shadowed by war.
Called ‘Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed World’, the 121-page report was produced by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The report says, "The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions.
Called ‘Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed World’, the 121-page report was produced by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The report says, "The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions.
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Prabhupada : So here the time is coming. ... The atom bomb is ready. You have got, I have got. I drop on you, and you drop on me. Both of us, we finish. This is going to be happening. People are so degraded. So unless one takes to Krsna consciousness, there is no possibility of being saved. There is example, that grinding mill... |
The Report continues, “Some African and South Asian states may wither away altogether, organised crime could take over at least one state in central Europe; and the spread of nuclear weapons will heighten the risk that they will be used. The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes."
The report adds, “ There is perceived risk of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East where a number of countries are thinking about developing or acquiring technologies that would be useful to make nuclear weapons. Over the next 15-20 years, reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear program could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons. This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region. It was not certain that the kind of deterrent relationships that existed for most of the Cold War would emerge in a nuclear armed Middle East. Instead, the possession of nuclear weapons may be perceived as "making it safe" to engage in low intensity conflicts, terrorism or even larger conventional attacks. Terrorism would likely be a factor in 2025.”
Report has been briefed to the President Barack Obama. Thomas Fingar, deputy director of US National Intelligence says, "In one sense, a bad sense, the pace of change that we are looking at in 2025 occurred more rapidly than we had anticipated. One overarching conclusion of the report is that "the unipolar” world is over, or certainly will be by 2025. But with the "rise of the rest," managing crises and avoiding conflicts will be more difficult, particularly with an antiquated post-World War II international system. The potential for conflict will be different then and in some ways greater than it has been for a very long time,"
The report adds, “ There is perceived risk of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East where a number of countries are thinking about developing or acquiring technologies that would be useful to make nuclear weapons. Over the next 15-20 years, reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear program could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons. This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region. It was not certain that the kind of deterrent relationships that existed for most of the Cold War would emerge in a nuclear armed Middle East. Instead, the possession of nuclear weapons may be perceived as "making it safe" to engage in low intensity conflicts, terrorism or even larger conventional attacks. Terrorism would likely be a factor in 2025.”
Report has been briefed to the President Barack Obama. Thomas Fingar, deputy director of US National Intelligence says, "In one sense, a bad sense, the pace of change that we are looking at in 2025 occurred more rapidly than we had anticipated. One overarching conclusion of the report is that "the unipolar” world is over, or certainly will be by 2025. But with the "rise of the rest," managing crises and avoiding conflicts will be more difficult, particularly with an antiquated post-World War II international system. The potential for conflict will be different then and in some ways greater than it has been for a very long time,"
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“You can’t say civilization doesn’t advance... in every war they kill you in a new way.” |
The Nuclear War that Almost Happened More Than 20 Times Next Time We May or May Not Be So Lucky
To err is human and in case of nuclear war, we can err only once. Ever since the two adversaries in the Cold War, the USA and the USSR realized that their nuclear arsenals were sufficient to do disastrous damage to both countries at short notice, the leaders and the military commanders have thought about the possibility of a nuclear war starting without their intention or as a result of a false alarm. Increasingly elaborate accessories have been incorporated in nuclear weapons and their delivery systems to minimize the risk of unauthorized or accidental launch or detonation. A most innovative action was the establishment of the "hot line" between Washington and Moscow in 1963 to reduce the risk of misunderstanding between the super powers.
Despite all precautions, the possibility of an inadvertent war due to an unpredicted sequence of events remained as a deadly threat to both countries and to the world.
On the American side many "false alarms" and significant accidents have been listed, ranging from trivial to very serious, during the Cold War. Probably many remain unknown to the public and the research community because of individuals' desire to avoid blame and maintain the good reputation of their unit or command. No doubt there have been as many mishaps on the Soviet side.
Despite all precautions, the possibility of an inadvertent war due to an unpredicted sequence of events remained as a deadly threat to both countries and to the world.
On the American side many "false alarms" and significant accidents have been listed, ranging from trivial to very serious, during the Cold War. Probably many remain unknown to the public and the research community because of individuals' desire to avoid blame and maintain the good reputation of their unit or command. No doubt there have been as many mishaps on the Soviet side.
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What is the advancement over the dogs? This destruction of another nation by nuclear bombs is the dogs' mentality. Sometimes, even when chained by their respective masters, two dogs will fight as soon as they meet. Have you seen it? It's no better than that. |
The risks are illustrated by the following selection of mishaps. If the people involved had exercised less caution, or if some unfortunate coincidental event had occurred, escalation to nuclear war could easily be imagined.
On this subject, there is a carefully researched book, ‘The Limits of Safety’ by Scott D. Sagan.
The following selections represent only a fraction of the false alarms that have been reported on the American side. Many probably remain unreported, or are hidden in records that remain classified. There are likely to have been as many on the Soviet Side which are even more difficult to access.
Following abbreviations have been used
NORAD - North American Aerospace Defense Command
SAC HQ - Strategic Air Command Headquarters
NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization
BMEWS - Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sites
DEFCON - The Defense Readiness Condition
ICBM - Inter-continental Ballistic Missile
On this subject, there is a carefully researched book, ‘The Limits of Safety’ by Scott D. Sagan.
The following selections represent only a fraction of the false alarms that have been reported on the American side. Many probably remain unreported, or are hidden in records that remain classified. There are likely to have been as many on the Soviet Side which are even more difficult to access.
Following abbreviations have been used
NORAD - North American Aerospace Defense Command
SAC HQ - Strategic Air Command Headquarters
NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization
BMEWS - Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sites
DEFCON - The Defense Readiness Condition
ICBM - Inter-continental Ballistic Missile
"Oh, we are advancing. Advancement of knowledge." By advancement of knowledge, we have manufactured atom bomb so that killing process can be accelerated. People are dying, and that dying process is accelerated, and we are proud. Advancement of knowledge. Oh, manufacture something which will stop death; then you will have advancement of knowledge. Killing is there. What advancement? Killing is there and you are facilitating, you are making more killing at one drop. This is not knowledge. This is called mayayapahrta-jnana, "the knowledge taken by the illusory energy.
-Srila Prabhupada (Bhagavad-gita 7.11-16 -- New York, October 7, 1966)
1) November 5, 1956: Suez Crisis Coincidence
British and French Forces were attacking Egypt at the Suez Canal;. The Soviet Government had suggested to the U.S. that they combine forces to stop this by a joint military action, and had warned the British and French governments that (non-nuclear) rocket attacks on London and Paris were being considered. That night NORAD HQ received messages that:
(i) unidentified aircraft were flying over Turkey and the Turkish air force was on alert
(ii) 100 Soviet MIG-15's were flying over Syria
(iii) a British Canberra bomber had been shot down over Syria
(iv) the Soviet fleet was moving through the Dardanelles.
It is reported that in the US General Goodpaster himself was concerned that these events might trigger the NATO operations plan for nuclear strikes against the USSR.
The four reports were all shown afterwards to have innocent explanations. They were due, respectively to:
(i) a flight of swans
(ii) a routine air force escort (much smaller than the number reported) for the president of Syria, who was returning from a visit to Moscow
(iii) the Canberra bomber was forced down by mechanical problems
(iv) the Soviet fleet was engaged in scheduled routine exercises.
(i) unidentified aircraft were flying over Turkey and the Turkish air force was on alert
(ii) 100 Soviet MIG-15's were flying over Syria
(iii) a British Canberra bomber had been shot down over Syria
(iv) the Soviet fleet was moving through the Dardanelles.
It is reported that in the US General Goodpaster himself was concerned that these events might trigger the NATO operations plan for nuclear strikes against the USSR.
The four reports were all shown afterwards to have innocent explanations. They were due, respectively to:
(i) a flight of swans
(ii) a routine air force escort (much smaller than the number reported) for the president of Syria, who was returning from a visit to Moscow
(iii) the Canberra bomber was forced down by mechanical problems
(iv) the Soviet fleet was engaged in scheduled routine exercises.
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There is a very nice story. One rat, he was troubled with cat. So he came to a saintly person: "My dear sir, I am very much troubled." "What is the difficulty?" The rat said, "The cat always chases. So I'm not in peace of mind." "Then what do you want?" "Please make me a cat." "All right, you become a cat." After few days, the same cat again came to the saintly person, says, "My dear sir, I am again in trouble." "What is that?" "The dogs are chasing me." "Then what do you want?" "Make me a dog." "All right, you become a dog." Then after few days, again he comes. He says, "I am again in trouble, sir." "What is that?" "The foxes are chasing me." "Then what do you want?" "To become a fox." "All right, you become a fox." Then again he comes. He says, "Oh, tigers are chasing me." "Then what do you want?" "I want to become a tiger." "All right, you become a tiger." And when he became a tiger, he began to stare his eyes on the saintly person: "I shall eat you." "Oh, you shall eat me? I have made you tiger, and you want to eat me?" "Yes, I shall eat you." Oh, then he cursed him, "Again you become a rat." So he became a rat. |
2) November 24, 1961: BMEWS Communication Failure
On the night of November 24, 1961, all communication links went dead between SAC HQ and NORAD. The communication loss cut off SAC HQ from the three Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sites (BMEWS) at Thule (Greenland), Clear (Alaska) and Fillingdales (England). There were two possible explanations facing SAC HQ: either enemy action, or the coincidental failure of all the communication systems, which had redundant and ostensibly independent routes, including commercial telephone circuits. All SAC bases in the United States were therefore alerted, and B-52 bomber crews started their engines, with instructions not to take off without further orders. Radio communication was established with an orbiting B-52 on airborne alert, near Thule. It contacted the BMEWS stations by radio and could report that no attack had taken place.
The reason for the "coincidental" failure was the redundant routes for telephone and telegraph between NORAD and SAC HQ all ran through one relay station in Colorado. At that relay station a motor had overheated and caused interruption of all the lines.
The reason for the "coincidental" failure was the redundant routes for telephone and telegraph between NORAD and SAC HQ all ran through one relay station in Colorado. At that relay station a motor had overheated and caused interruption of all the lines.
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There is as yet no civilized society, but only a society in the process of becoming civilized. There is as yet no civilized nation, but only nations in the process of becoming civilized. From this standpoint, we can now speak of a collective task of humankind. The task of humanity is to build a genuine civilization. |
3) August 23, 1962: B-52 Navigation Error
On August 23, 1962, a B-52 nuclear armed bomber crew made a navigational error and flew 20 degrees too far north. They approached within 300 miles of Soviet airspace near Wrangel island, where there was believed to be an interceptor base with aircraft having an operational radius of 400 miles.
Because of the risk of repetition of such an error, in this northern area where other checks on Navigation are difficult to obtain, it was decided to fly a less provocative route in the future. However, the necessary orders had not been given by the time of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, so throughout that crisis the same
northern route was being flown 24 hours a day.
Because of the risk of repetition of such an error, in this northern area where other checks on Navigation are difficult to obtain, it was decided to fly a less provocative route in the future. However, the necessary orders had not been given by the time of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, so throughout that crisis the same
northern route was being flown 24 hours a day.
Students' prayers 24 hours a day desiring the war should stop is useless. God cannot be their order supplier. First of all they act sinfully, and when there is reaction of war, pestilence, famine, and so many other nature's disturbances, they pray to God for stopping them. This is not possible. Just like a criminal first of all commits theft, burglary and debauchery, and when he is captured, by the police force, if he prays to the government to stop, that is not possible. So they are engaged in all sinful activities, and by natures' law, there must be reaction. I am encouraging now cow killing or animal killing, and when by nature's law, the turn comes upon me to be killed, if I pray I want to stop it, how it can be stopped?
-Srila Prabhupada, (Letter to: Satsvarupa -- Seattle 9 October, 1968)
4) August-October, 1962: U2 Flights into Soviet Airspace
U2 high altitude reconnaissance flights from Alaska occasionally strayed unintentionally into Soviet airspace. One such episode occurred in August 1962. During the Cuban missile crisis on October of 1962, the U2 pilots were ordered not to fly within 100 miles of Soviet airspace.
On the night of October 26, for a reason irrelevant to the crisis, a U2 pilot was ordered to fly a new route, over the north pole, where positional checks on navigation were by sextant only. That night the aurora prevented good sextant readings and the plane strayed over the Chukotski Peninsula. Soviet MIG interceptors took off with orders to shoot down the U2. The pilot contacted his U.S. command post and was ordered to fly due east towards Alaska. He ran out of fuel while still over Siberia. In response to his SOS., U.S. F102-A fighters were launched to escort him on his glide to Alaska, with orders to prevent the MIG's from entering U.S. airspace. The U.S. interceptor aircraft were armed with nuclear missiles. These could have been used by any one of the F102-A pilots at his own discretion.
On the night of October 26, for a reason irrelevant to the crisis, a U2 pilot was ordered to fly a new route, over the north pole, where positional checks on navigation were by sextant only. That night the aurora prevented good sextant readings and the plane strayed over the Chukotski Peninsula. Soviet MIG interceptors took off with orders to shoot down the U2. The pilot contacted his U.S. command post and was ordered to fly due east towards Alaska. He ran out of fuel while still over Siberia. In response to his SOS., U.S. F102-A fighters were launched to escort him on his glide to Alaska, with orders to prevent the MIG's from entering U.S. airspace. The U.S. interceptor aircraft were armed with nuclear missiles. These could have been used by any one of the F102-A pilots at his own discretion.
5) October 24, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: A Soviet Satellite Explodes
On October 24, a Soviet satellite entered its own parking orbit, and shortly afterward exploded. Sir Bernard Lovell, director of the Jodrell Bank observatory wrote in 1968: "The explosion of a Russian spacecraft in orbit during the Cuban missile crisis... led the US to believe that the USSR was launching a massive ICBM attack." The NORAD Command Post logs of the dates in question remain classified, possibly to conceal reaction to the event. Its occurrence is recorded, and U.S. space tracking stations were informed on October 31 of debris resulting from the breakup of the satellite.
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Is there any man, is there any woman, let me say any child here that does not know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry? |
6) October 25, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Intruder in Duluth
At around midnight on October 25, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction Center saw a figure climbing the security fence. He shot at it, and activated the "sabotage alarm." This automatically set off sabotage alarms at all bases in the area. At Volk Field, Wisconsin, the alarm was wrongly wired, and the Klaxon (alerting device) sounded which ordered nuclear armed F-106A interceptors to take off. The pilots knew there would be no practice alert drills while DEFCON 3 (highest alert) was in force, and they believed World War III had started.
Immediate communication with Duluth showed there was an error. By this time aircraft were starting down the runway. A car raced from command center and successfully signaled the aircraft to stop. The original intruder was a bear.
Immediate communication with Duluth showed there was an error. By this time aircraft were starting down the runway. A car raced from command center and successfully signaled the aircraft to stop. The original intruder was a bear.
7) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: ICBM Test Launch
At Vandenburg Air Force Base, California, there was a program of routine ICBM test flights. When DEFCON 3 was ordered all the ICBM's were fitted with nuclear warheads except one Titan missile that was scheduled for a test launch later that week. That one was launched for its test, without further orders from Washington, at 4 AM on the 26th.
It must be assumed that Russian observers were monitoring U.S. missile activities as closely as U.S. observers were monitoring Russian and Cuban activities. They would have known of the general changeover to nuclear warheads, but not that this was only a test launch.
It must be assumed that Russian observers were monitoring U.S. missile activities as closely as U.S. observers were monitoring Russian and Cuban activities. They would have known of the general changeover to nuclear warheads, but not that this was only a test launch.
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Now if you are willingly killing cows and so many animals, so how much we are being responsible? Therefore at the present moment there is war, and the human society becomes subjected to be killed in mass massacre -- the nature's law. You cannot stop war and go on killing animals. That is not possible. There will be so many accidents for killing. The wholesale kill. When Krsna kills, He kills wholesale. When I kill -- one after another. But when Krsna kills, they assemble all the killers and kill. |
8) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Unannounced Titan Missile Launch
During the Cuba crisis, some radar warning stations that were under construction and near completion were brought into full operation as fast as possible. The planned overlap of coverage was thus not always available.
A normal test launch of a Titan-II ICBM took place in the afternoon of October 26, from Florida to the South Pacific. It caused temporary concern at Moorestown Radar site until its course could be plotted and showed no predicted impact within the United States. It was not until after this event that the potential for a serious false alarm was realized, and orders were given that radar warning sites must be notified in advance of test launches, and the countdown be relayed to them.
A normal test launch of a Titan-II ICBM took place in the afternoon of October 26, from Florida to the South Pacific. It caused temporary concern at Moorestown Radar site until its course could be plotted and showed no predicted impact within the United States. It was not until after this event that the potential for a serious false alarm was realized, and orders were given that radar warning sites must be notified in advance of test launches, and the countdown be relayed to them.
9) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Malstrom Air Force Base
When DEFCON 2 was declared on October 24, solid fuel Minuteman-1 missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base were being prepared for full deployment. The work was accelerated to ready the missiles for operation, without waiting for the normal handover procedures and safety checks. When one silo and missile were ready on October 26 no armed guards were available to cover transport from the normal separate storage, so the launch enabling equipment and codes were all placed in the silo. It was thus physically possible for a single operator to launch a fully armed missile at a SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) target.
During the remaining period of the Crisis the several missiles at Malstrom were repeatedly put on and off alert as errors and defects were found and corrected. Fortunately no combination of errors caused or threatened an unauthorized launch, but in the extreme tension of the period the danger can be well imagined.
During the remaining period of the Crisis the several missiles at Malstrom were repeatedly put on and off alert as errors and defects were found and corrected. Fortunately no combination of errors caused or threatened an unauthorized launch, but in the extreme tension of the period the danger can be well imagined.
Pakistan, since the beginning of Pakistan they could not make any economic condition very sound. But when the people are too much agitated, they declare war with India. The whole attention is... And they have been educated in such a way that India is their strongest enemy. Anything Indian, they dislike in Pakistan. So this is going on by the politicians. They are creating situation because they are not honest, they are not clean.
-Srila Prabhupada (Room Conversation with Richard Webster, chairman, Societa Filosofica Italiana — May 24, 1974, Rome)
10) October, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: NATO Readiness
It is recorded on October 22, that British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and NATO Supreme Commander, General Lauris Norstad agreed not to put NATO on alert in order to avoid provocation of the U.S.S.R. When the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered DEFCON 3, Norstad (A NATO General) was authorized to use his discretion in complying. Norstad did not order a NATO alert. However, several NATO subordinate commanders did order alerts to DEFCON 3 or equivalent levels of readiness at bases in West Germany, Italy, Turkey, and United Kingdom. This seems largely due to the action of General Truman Landon, Commander in Chief, US Air Forces Europe, who had already started alert procedures on October 17 in anticipation of a serious crisis over Cuba.
The modern civilization has got everything, but without God consciousness, any moment it will be finished. And there are symptoms... Any moment. At the present moment, this godless civilization, as soon as there is declaration of war, the America is prepared to drop atom bomb, Russia is... The America will be finished and Russia will be finished. That is the position. So you may make advancement of civilization, scientific improvement, economic development, but if it is godless, at any moment it will be finished.
- Prabhupada (Srimad-Bhagavatam 1.15.21 -- Los Angeles, December 1, 1973)
11) October, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: British Alerts
When the US SAC went to DEFCON 2, on October 24, Bomber Command (UK) was carrying out an unrelated readiness exercise. On October 26, Air Marshall Cross, commander in chief of Bomber Command, decided to prolong the exercise because of the Cuba crisis, and later increased the alert status of British nuclear forces, so that they could launch in 15 minutes.
It seems likely that Soviet intelligence would perceive these moves as part of a coordinated plan in preparation for immediate war. They could not be expected to know that neither the British Minister of Defense nor Prime Minister Macmillian had authorized them.
It seems likely that Soviet intelligence would perceive these moves as part of a coordinated plan in preparation for immediate war. They could not be expected to know that neither the British Minister of Defense nor Prime Minister Macmillian had authorized them.
12) October 28, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Moorestown False Alarm
Just before 9 am, on October 28, the Moorestown, New Jersey, radar operators informed the national command post that a nuclear attack was under way. A test tape simulating a missile launch from Cuba was being run, and simultaneously a satellite came over the horizon.
Operators became confused and reported by voice line to NORAD HQ that impact was expected 18 miles west of Tampa at 9:02 am. The whole of NORAD was reported, but before irrevocable action had taken place it was reported that no detonation had taken place at the predicted time, and Moorestown operators reported the reason for the false alarm.
During the incident overlapping radars that should have confirmed or disagreed were not in operation . The radar post had not received routine information of satellite passage because the facility carrying out that task had been given other work for the duration of the crisis.
Operators became confused and reported by voice line to NORAD HQ that impact was expected 18 miles west of Tampa at 9:02 am. The whole of NORAD was reported, but before irrevocable action had taken place it was reported that no detonation had taken place at the predicted time, and Moorestown operators reported the reason for the false alarm.
During the incident overlapping radars that should have confirmed or disagreed were not in operation . The radar post had not received routine information of satellite passage because the facility carrying out that task had been given other work for the duration of the crisis.
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But we want to stop these killing houses. It is very, very sinful. Therefore in Europe, so many wars. Every ten years, fifteen years, there is a big war and wholesale slaughter of the whole human kind. And these rascals, they do not see it. The reaction must be there. You are killing innocent cows and animals. Nature will take revenge. Wait for that. As soon as the time is ripe, the nature will gather all these rascals, and club, slaughter them. Finished. They will fight amongst themselves, Protestant and Catholic, Russian and France, and France and Germany. This is going on. Why? This is the nature's law. Tit for tat. You have killed. Now you get killed. Amongst yourselves. They are being sent to the slaughterhouse. And here, you'll create slaughterhouse, "Dum! dum!" and be killed. |
13) October 28, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: False Warning Due to Satellite
At 5:26 p.m. on October 28, the Laredo radar warning site had just become operational. Operators misidentified a satellite in orbit as two possible missiles over Georgia and reported by voice line to NORAD HQ. NORAD was unable to identify that the warning came from the new station at Laredo and believed it to be from Moorestown, and therefore more reliable. Moorestown failed to intervene and contradict the false warning. By the time the commander in chief, NORAD had been informed, no impact had been reported and the warning was "given low credence."
14) November 2, 1962: The Penkovsky False Warning
In the fall of 1962, Colonel Oleg Penkovsky was working with the Soviets as a double agent for the CIA. He had been given a code by which to warn the CIA if he was convinced that a Soviet attack on the United States was imminent. He was to call twice, one minute apart, and only blow into the receiver. Further information was then to be left at a "dead drop" in Moscow.
The pre-arranged code message was received by the CIA on November 2, 1962.
It was known at the CIA that Penkovsky had been arrested on October 22. Penkovsky knew he was going to be executed. It is not known whether he had told the KGB the meaning of the code signal or only how it would be given, nor is it known exactly why or with what authorization the KGB staff used it. When another CIA agent checked the dead drop he was arrested.
The pre-arranged code message was received by the CIA on November 2, 1962.
It was known at the CIA that Penkovsky had been arrested on October 22. Penkovsky knew he was going to be executed. It is not known whether he had told the KGB the meaning of the code signal or only how it would be given, nor is it known exactly why or with what authorization the KGB staff used it. When another CIA agent checked the dead drop he was arrested.
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The great masses of the people ... will more easily fall victims to a big lie than to a small one. |
15) November, 1965: Power Failure and Faulty Bomb Alarms
Special bomb alarms were installed near military facilities and near cities in the USA, so that the locations of nuclear bursts would be transmitted before the expected communication failure. The alarm circuits were set up to display a red signal at command posts the instant that the flash of a nuclear detonation reached the sensor and before the blast put it out of action. Normally the display would show a green signal, and yellow if the sensor was not operating or was out of communication for any other reason.
During the commercial power failure in the NE United States, in November 1965, displays from all the bomb alarms for the area should have shown yellow. In fact, two of them from different cities showed red because of circuit errors. The effect was consistent with the power failure being due to nuclear weapons explosions, and the Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning went on full alert. Apparently the military did not.
During the commercial power failure in the NE United States, in November 1965, displays from all the bomb alarms for the area should have shown yellow. In fact, two of them from different cities showed red because of circuit errors. The effect was consistent with the power failure being due to nuclear weapons explosions, and the Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning went on full alert. Apparently the military did not.
16) January 21, 1968: B-52 Crash near Thule
On January 21, 1968, a fire broke out in the B-52 bomber on airborne alert near Thule. The pilot prepared for an emergency landing at the base. However the situation deteriorated rapidly, and the crew had to bale out. There had been no time to communicate with SAC HQ, and the pilotless plane flew over the Thule base before crashing on the ice 7 miles offshore. Its fuel and high explosive component of its nuclear weapons exploded, but there was no nuclear detonation.
At that time, the "one point safe" condition of the nuclear weapons could not be guaranteed, and it is believed that a nuclear explosion could have resulted from accidental detonation of the high explosive trigger. Had there been a nuclear detonation even at 7 miles distant, all communication methods would have given an indication consistent with a successful nuclear attack on both the base and the B-52 bomber. The bomb alarm would have shown red, and the other two communication paths would have gone dead. It would hardly have been anticipated that the combination could have been caused by accident, particularly as the map of the routes for B-52 airborne flights approved by the President showed no flight near to Thule. The route had been apparently changed without informing the White House.
At that time, the "one point safe" condition of the nuclear weapons could not be guaranteed, and it is believed that a nuclear explosion could have resulted from accidental detonation of the high explosive trigger. Had there been a nuclear detonation even at 7 miles distant, all communication methods would have given an indication consistent with a successful nuclear attack on both the base and the B-52 bomber. The bomb alarm would have shown red, and the other two communication paths would have gone dead. It would hardly have been anticipated that the combination could have been caused by accident, particularly as the map of the routes for B-52 airborne flights approved by the President showed no flight near to Thule. The route had been apparently changed without informing the White House.
Civilization: a thin veneer over barbarianism.
~John Shanahan
17) October 24-25, 1973: False Alarm During Middle East Crisis
On October 24, 1973, when the U.N. sponsored cease fire intended to end the Arab-Israeli war was in force, further fighting started between Egyptian and Israeli troops in the Sinai desert. US intelligence reports and other sources suggested that the USSR was planning to intervene to protect the Egyptians. President Nixon was in the throes of Watergate episode and not available for a conference, so Kissinger and other U.S. officials ordered DEFCON3. The consequent movements of aircraft and troops were of course observed by Soviet intelligence. The purpose of the alert was not to prepare for war, but to warn the USSR not to intervene in the Sinai. However, if the following accident had not been promptly corrected then the Soviet command might have had a more dangerous interpretation.
On October 25, while DEFCON 3 was in force, mechanics were repairing one of the Klaxons (alert systems) at Kinchole Air Force Base, Michigan, and accidentally activated the whole base alarm system. B-52 crews rushed to their aircraft and started the engines. The duty officer recognized the alarm was false and recalled the crews before any took off.
On October 25, while DEFCON 3 was in force, mechanics were repairing one of the Klaxons (alert systems) at Kinchole Air Force Base, Michigan, and accidentally activated the whole base alarm system. B-52 crews rushed to their aircraft and started the engines. The duty officer recognized the alarm was false and recalled the crews before any took off.
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Formerly the war was declared — the leader of the war, if he is killed, then the other party is victorious. Not that unnecessarily killing the civil citizens, no. This was nonsense. If there was fight between two kings, the citizens, they were unaffected, not that there is fight now between two parties, there is immediately siren, (imitates siren:) gaw, gaw, gaw, gaw, now bomb and the civil..., the most uncivilized way of war. In those days -those days means at least five thousand years ago - they selected a place, and “Let us fight and decide our fate,” ksatriyas. Why the public should suffer? |
18) November 9, 1979: Computer Exercise Tape
At 8:50 a.m. on November 9, 1979, duty officers at 4 command centers (NORAD HQ, SAC Command Post, The Pentagon National Military Command Center, and the Alternate National Military Command Center) all saw on their displays a pattern showing a large number of Soviet Missiles in a full scale attack on the U.S.A. During the next 6 minutes emergency preparations for retaliation were made. A number of Air Force planes were launched, including the President's National Emergency Airborne Command Post, though without the President! The President had not been informed, perhaps because he could not be found.
No attempt was made to use the hot line either to ascertain the Soviet intentions or to tell the Soviets the reasons for U.S. actions. This seems to me to have been culpable negligence. The whole purpose of the "Hot Line" was to prevent exactly the type of disaster that was threatening at that moment.
With commendable speed, NORAD was able to contact PAVE PAWS, an Air Force Space Command radar system, and learn that no missiles had been reported. Also, the sensors on the satellites were functioning that day and had detected no missiles. In only 6 minutes the threat assessment conference was terminated.
The reason for the false alarm was an exercise tape running on the computer system. US Senator Charles Percy happened to be in NORAD HQ at the time and is reported to have said there was absolute panic. A question was asked in Congress. The General Accounting Office conducted an investigation, and an off-site testing facility was constructed so that test tapes did not in the future have to be run on a system that could be in military operation.
No attempt was made to use the hot line either to ascertain the Soviet intentions or to tell the Soviets the reasons for U.S. actions. This seems to me to have been culpable negligence. The whole purpose of the "Hot Line" was to prevent exactly the type of disaster that was threatening at that moment.
With commendable speed, NORAD was able to contact PAVE PAWS, an Air Force Space Command radar system, and learn that no missiles had been reported. Also, the sensors on the satellites were functioning that day and had detected no missiles. In only 6 minutes the threat assessment conference was terminated.
The reason for the false alarm was an exercise tape running on the computer system. US Senator Charles Percy happened to be in NORAD HQ at the time and is reported to have said there was absolute panic. A question was asked in Congress. The General Accounting Office conducted an investigation, and an off-site testing facility was constructed so that test tapes did not in the future have to be run on a system that could be in military operation.
19) June , 1980: Faulty Computer Chip
The Warning displays at the Command Centers mentioned in the last episode included windows that normally showed
0000 ICBMs detected 0000 SLBMs detected
At 2:25 a.m. on June 3, 1980, these displays started showing various numbers of missiles detected, represented by 2's in place of one or more 0's. Preparations for retaliation were instituted, including nuclear bomber crews starting their engines, launch of Pacific Command's Airborne Command Post, and readying of Minutemen missiles for launch.
While the cause of that false alarm was still being investigated 3 days later, the same thing happened and again preparations were made for retaliation. The cause was a single faulty chip that was failing in a random fashion. The basic design of the system was faulty, allowing this single failure to cause a deceptive display at several command posts.
This particular one could have hardly brought nuclear retaliation.; but there are still 30,000 nuclear weapons deployed, and two nuclear weapon states could get into a hostilities status again.
0000 ICBMs detected 0000 SLBMs detected
At 2:25 a.m. on June 3, 1980, these displays started showing various numbers of missiles detected, represented by 2's in place of one or more 0's. Preparations for retaliation were instituted, including nuclear bomber crews starting their engines, launch of Pacific Command's Airborne Command Post, and readying of Minutemen missiles for launch.
While the cause of that false alarm was still being investigated 3 days later, the same thing happened and again preparations were made for retaliation. The cause was a single faulty chip that was failing in a random fashion. The basic design of the system was faulty, allowing this single failure to cause a deceptive display at several command posts.
This particular one could have hardly brought nuclear retaliation.; but there are still 30,000 nuclear weapons deployed, and two nuclear weapon states could get into a hostilities status again.
20) January, 1995: Russian False Alarm
On January 25, 1995, the Russian early warning radars detected an unexpected missile launch near Spitzbergen. The estimated flight time to Moscow was 5 minutes. The Russian President, the Defense Minister and the Chief of Staff were informed. The early warning and the control and command center switched to combat mode. Within 5 minutes, the radars determined that the missile's impact would be outside the Russian borders.
The missile was Norwegian, and was launched for scientific measurements. On January 16, Norway had notified 35 countries including Russia that the launch was planned. Information had apparently reached the Russian Defense Ministry, but failed to reach the on-duty personnel of the early warning system.
These 20 incidents are only tip of an iceberg. Many far more serious incidents are locked up in Governments’ classified files. Russian data is even more inaccessible. But this small sample does show us the gravity of the issue at hand. To err is human and erring with nukes will happen only once. As long as nukes are stockpiled, we run the risks of accidents which will prove very costly for the humanity.
The missile was Norwegian, and was launched for scientific measurements. On January 16, Norway had notified 35 countries including Russia that the launch was planned. Information had apparently reached the Russian Defense Ministry, but failed to reach the on-duty personnel of the early warning system.
These 20 incidents are only tip of an iceberg. Many far more serious incidents are locked up in Governments’ classified files. Russian data is even more inaccessible. But this small sample does show us the gravity of the issue at hand. To err is human and erring with nukes will happen only once. As long as nukes are stockpiled, we run the risks of accidents which will prove very costly for the humanity.
Not all criminals are in prison and not all crimes are indictable under the law.
~-Ruth Minshull
Nukes Might End Up In Wrong Hands
The biggest fear of US administration is regarding Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal falling into wrong hands, including through some groups which may try to provoke an Indo-Pak confrontation hoping that it would help them seize Islamabad’s atomic arms.
To this effect an alarming stream of intelligence has begun circulating in international military circles. Many foreign-trained Pakistani scientists who harbour sympathy for radical Islamic causes, are returning to Pakistan to seek jobs within the country’s nuclear infrastructure - presumably trying to burrow in among the 2000 or so people who have critical knowledge of the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure. Also there are steadfast efforts of different extremist groups to infiltrate the labs and put sleepers and so on in there.
Some groups are trying to provoke confrontation between Pakistan and India in the hope that Pakistani military would transport tactical nuclear weapons closer to the front lines, where they would be more vulnerable to seizure. The United Nations Terrorism Prevention Branch estimated that as many as 130 terrorist groups could pose a nuclear threat, due to the increase in the smuggling of radioactive material. In the first three months of 2001 alone there were 20 confirmed incidents of nuclear smuggling, including thefts from Germany, Mexico, Romania, and South Africa. The rate of incidents in 1999-2000 was double the rate in 1996.
To this effect an alarming stream of intelligence has begun circulating in international military circles. Many foreign-trained Pakistani scientists who harbour sympathy for radical Islamic causes, are returning to Pakistan to seek jobs within the country’s nuclear infrastructure - presumably trying to burrow in among the 2000 or so people who have critical knowledge of the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure. Also there are steadfast efforts of different extremist groups to infiltrate the labs and put sleepers and so on in there.
Some groups are trying to provoke confrontation between Pakistan and India in the hope that Pakistani military would transport tactical nuclear weapons closer to the front lines, where they would be more vulnerable to seizure. The United Nations Terrorism Prevention Branch estimated that as many as 130 terrorist groups could pose a nuclear threat, due to the increase in the smuggling of radioactive material. In the first three months of 2001 alone there were 20 confirmed incidents of nuclear smuggling, including thefts from Germany, Mexico, Romania, and South Africa. The rate of incidents in 1999-2000 was double the rate in 1996.
But they are engaged in manufacturing atom bomb, duskrtinah. Atom bomb means killing. But discover something by which man will not die. That they are dying -- so you have discovered some instrument to die quickly. So that is duskrtinah. Merit, he has got merit, but misuse the merit. The death is there. He would have lived for, say, sixty years, and you drop atom bomb -- in ten years or twenty years finished. You cannot increase the duration of life. Therefore the so-called scientific advancement, what is that? Duskrtinah,no benefit for the human society.
-Srila Prabhupada (Srimad-Bhagavatam 3.26.18 -- Bombay, December 27, 1974)
India-Pakistan Relations : Seeds of Conflict And Destruction
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since independence in 1947, two of them over the disputed territory of Kashmir. In 1998, both countries conducted nuclear tests and in 1999 went to the brink of war over the incursion of armed Jehadis in the Kargil area of Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir.
On several occasions, the world has seen heavy builtup of troops along Indo-Pak border with tensions mounting high and it all just needs a spark to start a full fledged war which can easily translate into nuclear exchange.
In December 2001, A group of terrorists attacked Indian Parliament and Indian government, holding Pakistan responsible for their training and shelter, ordered heavy built up of forces along the border. Pakistan denied any involvement in the attack and, at least initially, implied that India may have “stage-managed” the incident for its own political purposes. Pakistan responded with its own built up and arsenal was moved to front lines. The US and European countries evacuated its citizens and issued warnings against travelling to these two countries. Threat of war and subsequent nuclear exchange was very real.
In the midst of all that, Indian Army Chief ’s plane, while flying in the front areas, was fired at when it allegedly strayed into Pakistani side. It did not even carry any flares to dodge the heat seeking missiles. Anyways God saved him and possibly the world.
On several occasions, the world has seen heavy builtup of troops along Indo-Pak border with tensions mounting high and it all just needs a spark to start a full fledged war which can easily translate into nuclear exchange.
In December 2001, A group of terrorists attacked Indian Parliament and Indian government, holding Pakistan responsible for their training and shelter, ordered heavy built up of forces along the border. Pakistan denied any involvement in the attack and, at least initially, implied that India may have “stage-managed” the incident for its own political purposes. Pakistan responded with its own built up and arsenal was moved to front lines. The US and European countries evacuated its citizens and issued warnings against travelling to these two countries. Threat of war and subsequent nuclear exchange was very real.
In the midst of all that, Indian Army Chief ’s plane, while flying in the front areas, was fired at when it allegedly strayed into Pakistani side. It did not even carry any flares to dodge the heat seeking missiles. Anyways God saved him and possibly the world.
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“I do not believe that civilization will be wiped out in a war fought with the atomic bomb. Perhaps two-thirds of the people of the earth will be killed.” |
Cyber Wars & Terrorism
20th century battle field boundaries are shifting. Battles have moved under water, in air and across continents. Now it is in the realm of computers because computers control every aspect of our life. Jamming a country’s computers would mean choking its life air and ripping it apart.
Computers control our basic amenities like power, water and communication. Break down of computer infrastructure would instantly incapacitate a country.
Therefore, Cyber warfare (also known as cybernetic war, or cyberwar) is the use of computers and the Internet in conducting warfare in cyberspace.
Jeff Green, senior vice president of McAfee Avert Labs, says, "Cybercrime is now a global issue. It has evolved significantly and is no longer just a threat to industry and individuals but increasingly to national security. Future attacks are predicted to be even more sophisticated. Attacks have progressed from initial curiosity probes to well-funded and well-organized operations for political, military, economic and technical purposes."
There are several methods of attack in cyber warfare:
* Attacking critical inf rastructure: Power, water, fuel, communications, commercial and transportation are all vulnerable to a cyber attack.
* Cyber Espionage: Cyber espionage is the act or practice of obtaining secrets (sensitive, proprietary of classified information) from individuals, competitors, rivals, groups, governments and enemies also for military, political, or economic advantage using illegal exploitation methods on internet, networks, software and or computers.
* Web vandalism: Attacks that deface web pages, or denial-of-service attacks. This is normally swiftly combated and of little harm.
* Propaganda: Political messages can be spread through or to anyone with access to the internet.
* Gathering data: Classified information that is not handled securely can be intercepted and even modified, making espionage possible from the other side of the world.
* Distributed Denial-of-Service Attacks: Large numbers of computers in one country launch a DoS attack against systems
* Equipment disruption: Military activities that use computers and satellites for coordination are at risk from this type of attack. Orders and communications can be intercepted or replaced, putting soldiers at risk.
* Compromised Counterfeit Hardware: Common hardware used in computers and networks that have malicious software hidden inside the software, firmware or even the microprocessors.
Computers control our basic amenities like power, water and communication. Break down of computer infrastructure would instantly incapacitate a country.
Therefore, Cyber warfare (also known as cybernetic war, or cyberwar) is the use of computers and the Internet in conducting warfare in cyberspace.
Jeff Green, senior vice president of McAfee Avert Labs, says, "Cybercrime is now a global issue. It has evolved significantly and is no longer just a threat to industry and individuals but increasingly to national security. Future attacks are predicted to be even more sophisticated. Attacks have progressed from initial curiosity probes to well-funded and well-organized operations for political, military, economic and technical purposes."
There are several methods of attack in cyber warfare:
* Attacking critical inf rastructure: Power, water, fuel, communications, commercial and transportation are all vulnerable to a cyber attack.
* Cyber Espionage: Cyber espionage is the act or practice of obtaining secrets (sensitive, proprietary of classified information) from individuals, competitors, rivals, groups, governments and enemies also for military, political, or economic advantage using illegal exploitation methods on internet, networks, software and or computers.
* Web vandalism: Attacks that deface web pages, or denial-of-service attacks. This is normally swiftly combated and of little harm.
* Propaganda: Political messages can be spread through or to anyone with access to the internet.
* Gathering data: Classified information that is not handled securely can be intercepted and even modified, making espionage possible from the other side of the world.
* Distributed Denial-of-Service Attacks: Large numbers of computers in one country launch a DoS attack against systems
* Equipment disruption: Military activities that use computers and satellites for coordination are at risk from this type of attack. Orders and communications can be intercepted or replaced, putting soldiers at risk.
* Compromised Counterfeit Hardware: Common hardware used in computers and networks that have malicious software hidden inside the software, firmware or even the microprocessors.
Reported Threats
The Internet security company McAfee stated in their 2007 annual report that approximately 120 countries have been developing ways to use the Internet as a weapon and targets rival country’s financial markets, government computer systems and utilities.
In activities reminiscent of the Cold War, which caused countries to engage in clandestine activities, intelligence agencies are routinely testing networks looking for weaknesses. These techniques for probing weaknesses in the internet and global networks are growing more sophisticated every year.
The report further says that China is at the forefront of the cyber war. China has been accused of cyber-attacks on India and Germany and the United States.
In activities reminiscent of the Cold War, which caused countries to engage in clandestine activities, intelligence agencies are routinely testing networks looking for weaknesses. These techniques for probing weaknesses in the internet and global networks are growing more sophisticated every year.
The report further says that China is at the forefront of the cyber war. China has been accused of cyber-attacks on India and Germany and the United States.
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The term terrorism is used by the great powers simply to refer to forms of violence of which they disapprove. |
Known Attacks - Examples
* The United States had come under attack from computers and computer networks situated in China and Russia.
* On May 17, 2007 Estonia came under cyber attack. The Estonian parliament, ministries, banks, and media were targeted.
* On first week of September 2007, The Pentagon and various French, German and British government computers were attacked by hackers of Chinese origin.
* In the second week of April hackers hacked the Indian MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) computers.
* Georgian and Azerbaijani sites were attacked by hackers during the 2008 South Ossetia War.
The intelligence groups are coming to grips with the challenge of cyber warfare intelligence. Much of the advanced infrastructure used in traditional warfare, like satellite imagery, is ineffective in the realm of cyber. New techniques and technologies are required for intelligence agencies to operate in this field.
* On May 17, 2007 Estonia came under cyber attack. The Estonian parliament, ministries, banks, and media were targeted.
* On first week of September 2007, The Pentagon and various French, German and British government computers were attacked by hackers of Chinese origin.
* In the second week of April hackers hacked the Indian MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) computers.
* Georgian and Azerbaijani sites were attacked by hackers during the 2008 South Ossetia War.
The intelligence groups are coming to grips with the challenge of cyber warfare intelligence. Much of the advanced infrastructure used in traditional warfare, like satellite imagery, is ineffective in the realm of cyber. New techniques and technologies are required for intelligence agencies to operate in this field.
Cyber Wars : India Vs Pakistan, China Vs India - A Case Study
China’s cyber warfare army is marching on and has mounted almost daily attacks on Indian computer networks, both government and private.
According to senior government officials, these attacks are not isolated incidents of something so generic or basic as "hacking" — they are far more sophisticated and complete — and there is a method behind the madness. The core of the assault is that the Chinese are constantly scanning and mapping India’s official networks. This gives them a very good idea of not only the content but also of how to disable the networks or distract them during a conflict. This, officials say, is China’s way of gaining "an asymmetrical advantage" over a potential adversary.
China’s biggest attacks in the last few months include an attack on NIC (National Infomatics Centre), National Security Council, and on the Ministry of External Affairs.
There are three main weapons in use against Indian networks — BOTS, key loggers and mapping of networks. According to
sources in the government, Chinese hackers are acknowledged experts in setting up BOTS. A BOT is a parasite program embedded in a network, which hijacks the network and makes other computers act according to its wishes, which, in turn, are controlled by "external" forces.
The controlled computers are known as "zombies" in the colourful language of cyber security, and are a key aspect in cyber warfare. According to official sources, there are close to 50,000 BOTS in India at present — and these are "operational" figures.
What is the danger? Simply put, the danger is that at the appointed time, these "external" controllers of BOTNETS will command the networks, through the zombies, to move them at will.
Exactly a year ago, Indian computer security experts got a glimpse of what could happen when a targeted attack against Estonia shut that country down — it was done by one million computers from different parts of the world — and many of them were from India! That, officials said, was executed by cyber terrorists from Russia, who are deemed to be more deadlier.
National security adviser M K Narayanan has set up the National Technology Research Organization, which is also involved in assessing cyber security threats.
Now with regards to India vs Pakistan, cyberspace is rampant with incidents of Pakistani and Indian hackers playing a game of one upmanship with repeated reports of hacking of government oriented websites.
In the latest incident, the website of the Andhra Pradesh CID website was hacked by a Pakistani hackers group in retaliation to a hack of the Pakistan's Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's (OGRA) website by a group of Indian hackers.
There is a group in Pakistan called Pakistan Cyber Army (PCA) which recently hacked the web site of the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS) (www.iirs.gov.in), Centre for Transportation Research and Management (www.ctram.indianrail.gov.in).
According to senior government officials, these attacks are not isolated incidents of something so generic or basic as "hacking" — they are far more sophisticated and complete — and there is a method behind the madness. The core of the assault is that the Chinese are constantly scanning and mapping India’s official networks. This gives them a very good idea of not only the content but also of how to disable the networks or distract them during a conflict. This, officials say, is China’s way of gaining "an asymmetrical advantage" over a potential adversary.
China’s biggest attacks in the last few months include an attack on NIC (National Infomatics Centre), National Security Council, and on the Ministry of External Affairs.
There are three main weapons in use against Indian networks — BOTS, key loggers and mapping of networks. According to
sources in the government, Chinese hackers are acknowledged experts in setting up BOTS. A BOT is a parasite program embedded in a network, which hijacks the network and makes other computers act according to its wishes, which, in turn, are controlled by "external" forces.
The controlled computers are known as "zombies" in the colourful language of cyber security, and are a key aspect in cyber warfare. According to official sources, there are close to 50,000 BOTS in India at present — and these are "operational" figures.
What is the danger? Simply put, the danger is that at the appointed time, these "external" controllers of BOTNETS will command the networks, through the zombies, to move them at will.
Exactly a year ago, Indian computer security experts got a glimpse of what could happen when a targeted attack against Estonia shut that country down — it was done by one million computers from different parts of the world — and many of them were from India! That, officials said, was executed by cyber terrorists from Russia, who are deemed to be more deadlier.
National security adviser M K Narayanan has set up the National Technology Research Organization, which is also involved in assessing cyber security threats.
Now with regards to India vs Pakistan, cyberspace is rampant with incidents of Pakistani and Indian hackers playing a game of one upmanship with repeated reports of hacking of government oriented websites.
In the latest incident, the website of the Andhra Pradesh CID website was hacked by a Pakistani hackers group in retaliation to a hack of the Pakistan's Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's (OGRA) website by a group of Indian hackers.
There is a group in Pakistan called Pakistan Cyber Army (PCA) which recently hacked the web site of the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS) (www.iirs.gov.in), Centre for Transportation Research and Management (www.ctram.indianrail.gov.in).
Dangerous Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)
eapons of mass destruction can wipe out life from this planet in matter of hours which has sustained itself for millions of years. Following are some of the modern weapons of mass destruction.
Hydrogen bomb
A much more powerful weapon than the atom bomb, the hydrogen bomb relies on the release of thermonuclear energy by the condensation of hydrogen nuclei to helium nuclei (as happens in the Sun). The first test detonation was at Enewetak in the Pacific Ocean in 1952 by the USA.
Neutron bomb or enhanced radiation weapon (ERW)
The neutron or ERW bomb is a very small hydrogen bomb that has relatively high radiation but relatively low blast, designed to kill (in up to six days) by a brief neutron radiation wave that leaves buildings and weaponry intact.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
ICBMs refer to missiles which can strike across the continents. These are equipped with clusters of warheads (which can be directed to individual targets) and are known as multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). The 1980s US-designed MX (Peacekeeper) carries up to ten warheads in each missile. Each missile has a range of about 6,400 kms and eight MIRVs (each nuclear-armed) capable of hitting eight separate targets within about 240 kms of the central aiming point.
Biological or Germ Warfare
Biological weapons can be released in a number of ways, both from air and ground and even clandestinely. These germs can kill many millions in matter of hours. Most feared germs of biological warfare include: Anthrax, Smallpox, Botulism, Ebola, Q Fever, Plague. Venezuelan Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, Tularemia etc.
Chemical Warfare
Chemical warfare involves using the toxic properties of chemical substances to kill, injure or incapacitate an enemy. About 70 different chemicals have been used or stockpiled as Chemical Weapons (CW) agents during the 20th century. These chemicals are in liquid, gas or solid form and blister, choke and affect the nerves or blood. Chemical warfare agents are generally classified according to their effect on the organism and can be roughly grouped as: Nerve Agents, Mustard Agents, Hydrogen Cyanide, Tear Gases, Arsines, Psychotomimetic Agents, Toxins etc.
We can cite the example of Mustard which is an oily liquid with a garlic-like smell. Mustard gas was first used as a chemical-warfare agent during WWI, when it was responsible for about 70% of the million-plus gas casualties. Both in vapour and in liquid form its effect is to burn any body-tissue which it touches. Taken into the body, it can act as a systemic poison. Its burning effects are not normally apparent for some hours after exposure, whereupon they build up into the hideous picture of blindness, blistering and lung damage.
Agent orange, a dangerous chemical was extensively used by America in Vietnam war for defoliating and its ill effect on local population is visible even today.
The Electromagnetic Bomb (E-bomb)
An e-bomb (electromagnetic bomb) is a weapon that uses an intense electromagnetic field to create a brief pulse of energy that affects electronic circuitry without harming humans or buildings. At low levels, the pulse temporarily disables electronics systems; mid-range levels corrupt computer data. Very high levels completely destroy electronic circuitry, thus disabling any type of machine that uses electricity, including computers, radios, and ignition systems in vehicles. Although not directly lethal, an e-bomb would devastate any target that relies upon electricity: a category encompassing any potential military target and most civilian areas of the world as well. According to a CBS News report, the United States deployed an experimental e-bomb on March 24, 2003 to knock out Iraqi satellite television and disrupt the broadcast of propaganda. In a matter of seconds, a big enough e-bomb could thrust an entire city back 200 years or cripple a military unit.
The concept behind the e-bomb arose from nuclear weaponry research in the 1950s. When the U.S. military tested hydrogen bombs over the Pacific Ocean, streetlights were blown out hundreds of miles away and radio equipment was affected as far away as Australia.
Hydrogen bomb
A much more powerful weapon than the atom bomb, the hydrogen bomb relies on the release of thermonuclear energy by the condensation of hydrogen nuclei to helium nuclei (as happens in the Sun). The first test detonation was at Enewetak in the Pacific Ocean in 1952 by the USA.
Neutron bomb or enhanced radiation weapon (ERW)
The neutron or ERW bomb is a very small hydrogen bomb that has relatively high radiation but relatively low blast, designed to kill (in up to six days) by a brief neutron radiation wave that leaves buildings and weaponry intact.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
ICBMs refer to missiles which can strike across the continents. These are equipped with clusters of warheads (which can be directed to individual targets) and are known as multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). The 1980s US-designed MX (Peacekeeper) carries up to ten warheads in each missile. Each missile has a range of about 6,400 kms and eight MIRVs (each nuclear-armed) capable of hitting eight separate targets within about 240 kms of the central aiming point.
Biological or Germ Warfare
Biological weapons can be released in a number of ways, both from air and ground and even clandestinely. These germs can kill many millions in matter of hours. Most feared germs of biological warfare include: Anthrax, Smallpox, Botulism, Ebola, Q Fever, Plague. Venezuelan Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, Tularemia etc.
Chemical Warfare
Chemical warfare involves using the toxic properties of chemical substances to kill, injure or incapacitate an enemy. About 70 different chemicals have been used or stockpiled as Chemical Weapons (CW) agents during the 20th century. These chemicals are in liquid, gas or solid form and blister, choke and affect the nerves or blood. Chemical warfare agents are generally classified according to their effect on the organism and can be roughly grouped as: Nerve Agents, Mustard Agents, Hydrogen Cyanide, Tear Gases, Arsines, Psychotomimetic Agents, Toxins etc.
We can cite the example of Mustard which is an oily liquid with a garlic-like smell. Mustard gas was first used as a chemical-warfare agent during WWI, when it was responsible for about 70% of the million-plus gas casualties. Both in vapour and in liquid form its effect is to burn any body-tissue which it touches. Taken into the body, it can act as a systemic poison. Its burning effects are not normally apparent for some hours after exposure, whereupon they build up into the hideous picture of blindness, blistering and lung damage.
Agent orange, a dangerous chemical was extensively used by America in Vietnam war for defoliating and its ill effect on local population is visible even today.
The Electromagnetic Bomb (E-bomb)
An e-bomb (electromagnetic bomb) is a weapon that uses an intense electromagnetic field to create a brief pulse of energy that affects electronic circuitry without harming humans or buildings. At low levels, the pulse temporarily disables electronics systems; mid-range levels corrupt computer data. Very high levels completely destroy electronic circuitry, thus disabling any type of machine that uses electricity, including computers, radios, and ignition systems in vehicles. Although not directly lethal, an e-bomb would devastate any target that relies upon electricity: a category encompassing any potential military target and most civilian areas of the world as well. According to a CBS News report, the United States deployed an experimental e-bomb on March 24, 2003 to knock out Iraqi satellite television and disrupt the broadcast of propaganda. In a matter of seconds, a big enough e-bomb could thrust an entire city back 200 years or cripple a military unit.
The concept behind the e-bomb arose from nuclear weaponry research in the 1950s. When the U.S. military tested hydrogen bombs over the Pacific Ocean, streetlights were blown out hundreds of miles away and radio equipment was affected as far away as Australia.
Clash of Civilizations
The Latest Phase Of The Evolution Of Conflict In The Modern World.
By Samuel P. Huntington
World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. Civilizations - the highest cultural groupings of people - are differentiated from each other by religion, history, language and tradition. These divisions are deep and increasing in importance. From Yugoslavia to the Middle East to Central Asia, the fault lines of civilizations are the battle lines of the future. The primary axis of conflict in the future would be along cultural and religious lines.
The Clash of Civilizations theory is proposed by Samuel P. Huntington, a political scientist and it says people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post-Cold War world. His warnings that the Western civilization may decline is inspired by Arnold J. Toynbee, Carroll Quigley, and Oswald Spengler.
Iranian leader Mohammad Khatami introduced the idea of Dialogue Among Civilizations as a response to the theory of Clash of Civilizations. The term "Dialogue among Civilizations" became more known after the United Nations adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as the year of Dialogue among Civilizations.
During the Cold War, the world was divided into the First, Second and Third Worlds. Those divisions are no longer relevant. It is far more meaningful now to group countries not in terms of their political or economic systems or in terms of their level of economic development but rather in terms of their culture and civilization.
World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. Civilizations - the highest cultural groupings of people - are differentiated from each other by religion, history, language and tradition. These divisions are deep and increasing in importance. From Yugoslavia to the Middle East to Central Asia, the fault lines of civilizations are the battle lines of the future. The primary axis of conflict in the future would be along cultural and religious lines.
The Clash of Civilizations theory is proposed by Samuel P. Huntington, a political scientist and it says people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post-Cold War world. His warnings that the Western civilization may decline is inspired by Arnold J. Toynbee, Carroll Quigley, and Oswald Spengler.
Iranian leader Mohammad Khatami introduced the idea of Dialogue Among Civilizations as a response to the theory of Clash of Civilizations. The term "Dialogue among Civilizations" became more known after the United Nations adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as the year of Dialogue among Civilizations.
During the Cold War, the world was divided into the First, Second and Third Worlds. Those divisions are no longer relevant. It is far more meaningful now to group countries not in terms of their political or economic systems or in terms of their level of economic development but rather in terms of their culture and civilization.
A Divided World Along The Civilizational Lines
Huntington divided the world into the following "major" civilizations in his thesis :
Western Civilization
Western civilization is centered on Australasia, Northern America, and Europe (excluding most of Eastern Europe and the Balkans). Whether Latin America and the former member states of the Soviet Union are included, or are instead their own separate civilizations, will be an important future consideration for those regions.
Latin America includes Central America (excluding Belize), South America (excluding the Guianas), Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico may be considered a part of Western civilization, though it has slightly distinct social and political structures from Europe and Northern America. Many people of the Southern Cone, however, regard themselves as full members of the Western civilization.
It also includes the Orthodox world of the former Soviet Union (excluding most of Central Asia, the Baltic states, and Azerbaijan), the former Yugoslavia (excluding Slovenia and Croatia), Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, and Romania.
The Eastern World
The Eastern world is the mix of the Buddhist, Sinic, Hindu, and Japonic civilizations.
The Buddhist areas of Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are identified as separate from other civilizations, but they do not constitute a major civilization in the sense of international affairs.
Then there is the Sinic civilization of the China, Koreas, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This group also includes the Chinese diaspora, especially in relation to Southeast Asia.
Hindu civilization, located chiefly in India and Nepal, and is culturally adhered to by the global Indian diaspora.
Japan is considered a hybrid of Chinese civilization and older Altaic patterns.
Western Civilization
Western civilization is centered on Australasia, Northern America, and Europe (excluding most of Eastern Europe and the Balkans). Whether Latin America and the former member states of the Soviet Union are included, or are instead their own separate civilizations, will be an important future consideration for those regions.
Latin America includes Central America (excluding Belize), South America (excluding the Guianas), Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico may be considered a part of Western civilization, though it has slightly distinct social and political structures from Europe and Northern America. Many people of the Southern Cone, however, regard themselves as full members of the Western civilization.
It also includes the Orthodox world of the former Soviet Union (excluding most of Central Asia, the Baltic states, and Azerbaijan), the former Yugoslavia (excluding Slovenia and Croatia), Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, and Romania.
The Eastern World
The Eastern world is the mix of the Buddhist, Sinic, Hindu, and Japonic civilizations.
The Buddhist areas of Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are identified as separate from other civilizations, but they do not constitute a major civilization in the sense of international affairs.
Then there is the Sinic civilization of the China, Koreas, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This group also includes the Chinese diaspora, especially in relation to Southeast Asia.
Hindu civilization, located chiefly in India and Nepal, and is culturally adhered to by the global Indian diaspora.
Japan is considered a hybrid of Chinese civilization and older Altaic patterns.
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The West in effect is using international institutions, military power and economic resources to run the world in ways that will maintain Western predominance, protect Western interests and promote Western political and economic values. |
The Muslim world of the Greater Middle East
The Muslim world of the Greater Middle East (excluding Armenia, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Kazakhstan, Malta, Sudan, and Turkey), also includes northern West Africa, Albania, Bangladesh, Brunei, Comoros, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Maldives.
Sub-Saharan Africa Civilization
The civilization of Sub-Saharan Africa is located in Southern Africa, Middle Africa (excluding Chad), East Africa (excluding the Horn of Africa, Comoros, Kenya, Mauritius, and Tanzania), Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
Lone Countries
Instead of belonging to one of the "major" civilizations, Ethiopia, Haiti, and Turkey are labeled as "Lone" countries. Israel could be considered a unique state with its own civilization, but one which is extremely similar to the West. Anglophone Caribbean, former British colonies in the Caribbean, constitutes a distinct entity.
Torn Countries
There are also others which are considered as "Torn countries" since they do not belong to a single civilization. Examples include India ("torn" between Hindu and Islam), France (torn between South American, in the case of French Guiana; and the West), Benin, Chad, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Togo (all torn between Islam and Sub-Saharan Africa), Guyana and Suriname (torn between Hindu and South American), China (torn between Sinic, Buddhist, in the case of Tibet; and the West, in the case of Hong Kong and Macau), and the Philippines (torn between Islam, in the case of Mindanao; Sinic, and the West).
The Muslim world of the Greater Middle East (excluding Armenia, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Kazakhstan, Malta, Sudan, and Turkey), also includes northern West Africa, Albania, Bangladesh, Brunei, Comoros, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Maldives.
Sub-Saharan Africa Civilization
The civilization of Sub-Saharan Africa is located in Southern Africa, Middle Africa (excluding Chad), East Africa (excluding the Horn of Africa, Comoros, Kenya, Mauritius, and Tanzania), Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
Lone Countries
Instead of belonging to one of the "major" civilizations, Ethiopia, Haiti, and Turkey are labeled as "Lone" countries. Israel could be considered a unique state with its own civilization, but one which is extremely similar to the West. Anglophone Caribbean, former British colonies in the Caribbean, constitutes a distinct entity.
Torn Countries
There are also others which are considered as "Torn countries" since they do not belong to a single civilization. Examples include India ("torn" between Hindu and Islam), France (torn between South American, in the case of French Guiana; and the West), Benin, Chad, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Togo (all torn between Islam and Sub-Saharan Africa), Guyana and Suriname (torn between Hindu and South American), China (torn between Sinic, Buddhist, in the case of Tibet; and the West, in the case of Hong Kong and Macau), and the Philippines (torn between Islam, in the case of Mindanao; Sinic, and the West).
Why Civilizations Will Clash
Huntington feels that civilization identity will be increasingly important in the future, and the world will be shaped in large
measure by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization. The most important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating these civilizations from one another.
measure by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization. The most important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating these civilizations from one another.
The Reasons For Clash
1) Differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic. Civilizations are differentiated from each other by history, language, culture, tradition and, most important, religion. The people of different civilizations have different views on the relations between God and man, the individual and the group, the citizen and the state, parents and children, husband and wife, as well as differing views of the relative importance of rights and responsibilities, liberty and authority, equality and hierarchy. These differences are the product of centuries. They will not soon disappear. They are far more fundamental than differences among political ideologies and political regimes. Differences do not necessarily mean conflict, and conflict does not necessarily mean violence. Over the centuries, however, differences among civilizations have generated the most prolonged and the most violent conflicts.
2)The world is becoming a smaller place. The interactions between peoples of different civilizations are increasing; these increasing interactions intensify civilization consciousness and awareness of differences between civilizations and commonalities within civilizations. North African immigration to France generates hostility among Frenchmen and at the same time increased receptivity to immigration by "good" European Catholic Poles. Americans react far more negatively to Japanese investment than to larger investments from Canada and European countries.
2)The world is becoming a smaller place. The interactions between peoples of different civilizations are increasing; these increasing interactions intensify civilization consciousness and awareness of differences between civilizations and commonalities within civilizations. North African immigration to France generates hostility among Frenchmen and at the same time increased receptivity to immigration by "good" European Catholic Poles. Americans react far more negatively to Japanese investment than to larger investments from Canada and European countries.
"We are facing a need and a movement far transcending the level of issues and policies and the governments that pursue them. This is no less than a clash of civilizations -- the perhaps irrational but surely historic reaction of an ancient rival against our Judeo-Christian heritage, our secular present, and the worldwide expansion of both.”
-Bernard Lewis (The Roots of Muslim Rage)
Similarly, as Donald Horowitz has pointed out, "An Ibo may be an Owerri Ibo or an Onitsha Ibo in the Eastern region of Nigeria. In Lagos, he is simply an Ibo. In London, he is a Nigerian. In New York, he is an African." The interactions among peoples of different civilizations enhance the civilization-consciousness of people that, in turn, invigorates differences and animosities stretching or thought to stretch back deep into history.
3) The processes of economic modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people from long-standing local identities. They also weaken the nation state as a source of identity. In much of the world religion has moved in to fill this gap, often in the form of movements that are labeled "fundamentalist." Such movements are found in Western Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism, as well as in Islam. In most countries and most religions the people active in fundamentalist movements are young, college-educated, middle-class technicians, professionals and business persons. The "unsecularization of the world," George Weigel has remarked, "is one of the dominant social factors of life in the late twentieth century." The revival of religion provides a basis for identity and commitment that transcends national boundaries and unites civilizations.
4) The growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by the dual role of the West. On the one hand, the West is at a peak of power. At the same time, however, and perhaps as a result, a return to the roots phenomenon is occurring among non-Western civilizations. Increasingly one hears references to trends toward a turning inward and "Asianization" in Japan, the end of the Nehru legacy and the "Hinduization" of India, the failure of Western ideas of socialism and nationalism and hence "re-Islamization" of the Middle East, and now a debate over Westernization versus Russianization in Boris Yeltsin's country. A West at the peak of its power confronts non-Wests that increasingly have the desire, the will and the resources to shape the world in non-Western ways.
In the past, the elites of non-Western societies were usually the people who were most involved with the West, had been educated at Oxford, the Sorbonne or Sandhurst, and had absorbed Western attitudes and values. At the same time, the populace in non-Western countries often remained deeply imbued with the indigenous culture. Now, however, these relationships are being reversed. A de-Westernization and indigenization of elites is occurring in many non-Western countries at the same time that Western, usually American, cultures, styles and habits become more popular among the mass of the people.
5) Cultural characteristics and differences are less mutable and hence less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones. In the former Soviet Union, communists can become democrats, the rich can become poor and the poor rich, but Russians cannot become Estonians and Azeris cannot become Armenians. In class and ideological conflicts, the key question was "Which side are you on?" And people could and did choose sides and change sides. In conflicts between civilizations, the question is "What are you?" That is a given that cannot be changed. And as we know, from Bosnia to the Caucasus to the Sudan, the wrong answer to that question can mean a bullet in the head. Even more than ethnicity, religion discriminates sharply and exclusively among people. A person can be half-French and half-Arab and simultaneously even a citizen of two countries. It is more difficult to be half-Catholic and half-Muslim.
3) The processes of economic modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people from long-standing local identities. They also weaken the nation state as a source of identity. In much of the world religion has moved in to fill this gap, often in the form of movements that are labeled "fundamentalist." Such movements are found in Western Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism, as well as in Islam. In most countries and most religions the people active in fundamentalist movements are young, college-educated, middle-class technicians, professionals and business persons. The "unsecularization of the world," George Weigel has remarked, "is one of the dominant social factors of life in the late twentieth century." The revival of religion provides a basis for identity and commitment that transcends national boundaries and unites civilizations.
4) The growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by the dual role of the West. On the one hand, the West is at a peak of power. At the same time, however, and perhaps as a result, a return to the roots phenomenon is occurring among non-Western civilizations. Increasingly one hears references to trends toward a turning inward and "Asianization" in Japan, the end of the Nehru legacy and the "Hinduization" of India, the failure of Western ideas of socialism and nationalism and hence "re-Islamization" of the Middle East, and now a debate over Westernization versus Russianization in Boris Yeltsin's country. A West at the peak of its power confronts non-Wests that increasingly have the desire, the will and the resources to shape the world in non-Western ways.
In the past, the elites of non-Western societies were usually the people who were most involved with the West, had been educated at Oxford, the Sorbonne or Sandhurst, and had absorbed Western attitudes and values. At the same time, the populace in non-Western countries often remained deeply imbued with the indigenous culture. Now, however, these relationships are being reversed. A de-Westernization and indigenization of elites is occurring in many non-Western countries at the same time that Western, usually American, cultures, styles and habits become more popular among the mass of the people.
5) Cultural characteristics and differences are less mutable and hence less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones. In the former Soviet Union, communists can become democrats, the rich can become poor and the poor rich, but Russians cannot become Estonians and Azeris cannot become Armenians. In class and ideological conflicts, the key question was "Which side are you on?" And people could and did choose sides and change sides. In conflicts between civilizations, the question is "What are you?" That is a given that cannot be changed. And as we know, from Bosnia to the Caucasus to the Sudan, the wrong answer to that question can mean a bullet in the head. Even more than ethnicity, religion discriminates sharply and exclusively among people. A person can be half-French and half-Arab and simultaneously even a citizen of two countries. It is more difficult to be half-Catholic and half-Muslim.
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A new cold war is under way between China and America. |
5) Economic regionalism is increasing, opines Huntington. The proportions of total trade that are intraregional rose between 1980 and 1989 from 51 percent to 59 percent in Europe, 33 percent to 37 percent in East Asia, and 32 percent to 36 percent in North America. The importance of regional economic blocs is likely to continue to increase in the future. On the one hand, successful economic regionalism will reinforce civilization -consciousness. On the other hand, economic regionalism may succeed only when it is rooted in a common civilization. The European Community rests on the shared foundation of European culture and Western Christianity. The success of the North American Free Trade Area depends on the convergence now underway of Mexican, Canadian and American cultures. Japan, in contrast, faces difficulties in creating a comparable economic entity in East Asia because Japan is a society and civilization unique to itself. However strong the trade and investment links Japan may develop with other East Asian countries, its cultural differences with those countries inhibit and perhaps preclude its promoting regional economic integration like that in Europe and North America.
Common culture, in contrast, is clearly facilitating the rapid expansion of the economic relations between the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and the overseas Chinese communities in other Asian countries. With the Cold War over, cultural commonalities increasingly overcome ideological differences, and mainland China and Taiwan move closer together. If cultural commonality is a prerequisite for economic integration, the principal East Asian economic bloc of the future is likely to be centered on China. This bloc is, in fact, already coming into existence. Despite the current Japanese dominance of the region, the Chinese-based economy of Asia is rapidly emerging as a new epicenter for industry, commerce and finance. This strategic area contains substantial amounts of technology and manufacturing capability (Taiwan), outstanding entrepreneurial, marketing and services acumen (Hong Kong), a fine communications network (Singapore), a tremendous pool of financial capital (all three), and very large endowments of land, resources and labor (mainland China). . . . From Guangzhou to Singapore, from Kuala Lumpur to Manila, this influential network -- often based on extensions of the traditional clans -- has been described as the backbone of the East Asian economy. (Murray Weidenbaum, Greater China: The Next Economic Superpower?)
Culture and religion also form the basis of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), which brings together ten non-Arab Muslim countries: Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tadjikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. One impetus to the revival and expansion of this organization, founded originally in the 1960s by Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, is the realization by the leaders of several of these countries that they had no chance of admission to the European Community.
As people define their identity in ethnic and religious terms, they are likely to see an "us" versus "them" relation existing between themselves and people of different ethnicity or religion. The end of ideologically defined states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union permits traditional ethnic identities and animosities to come to the fore. Differences in culture and religion create differences over policy issues, ranging from human rights to immigration to trade and commerce to the environment.
Most important, the efforts of the West to promote its values of democracy and liberalism to universal values, to maintain its military predominance and to advance its economic interests engender countering responses from other civilizations. Decreasingly able to mobilize support and form coalitions on the basis of ideology, governments and groups will increasingly attempt to mobilize support by appealing to common religion and civilization identity.
The clash of civilizations thus occurs at two levels. At the micro-
level, adjacent groups along the fault lines between civilizations struggle, often violently, over the control of territory and each other. At the macro-level, states from different civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, struggle over the control of international institutions and third parties, and competitively promote their particular political and religious values.
Common culture, in contrast, is clearly facilitating the rapid expansion of the economic relations between the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and the overseas Chinese communities in other Asian countries. With the Cold War over, cultural commonalities increasingly overcome ideological differences, and mainland China and Taiwan move closer together. If cultural commonality is a prerequisite for economic integration, the principal East Asian economic bloc of the future is likely to be centered on China. This bloc is, in fact, already coming into existence. Despite the current Japanese dominance of the region, the Chinese-based economy of Asia is rapidly emerging as a new epicenter for industry, commerce and finance. This strategic area contains substantial amounts of technology and manufacturing capability (Taiwan), outstanding entrepreneurial, marketing and services acumen (Hong Kong), a fine communications network (Singapore), a tremendous pool of financial capital (all three), and very large endowments of land, resources and labor (mainland China). . . . From Guangzhou to Singapore, from Kuala Lumpur to Manila, this influential network -- often based on extensions of the traditional clans -- has been described as the backbone of the East Asian economy. (Murray Weidenbaum, Greater China: The Next Economic Superpower?)
Culture and religion also form the basis of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), which brings together ten non-Arab Muslim countries: Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tadjikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. One impetus to the revival and expansion of this organization, founded originally in the 1960s by Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, is the realization by the leaders of several of these countries that they had no chance of admission to the European Community.
As people define their identity in ethnic and religious terms, they are likely to see an "us" versus "them" relation existing between themselves and people of different ethnicity or religion. The end of ideologically defined states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union permits traditional ethnic identities and animosities to come to the fore. Differences in culture and religion create differences over policy issues, ranging from human rights to immigration to trade and commerce to the environment.
Most important, the efforts of the West to promote its values of democracy and liberalism to universal values, to maintain its military predominance and to advance its economic interests engender countering responses from other civilizations. Decreasingly able to mobilize support and form coalitions on the basis of ideology, governments and groups will increasingly attempt to mobilize support by appealing to common religion and civilization identity.
The clash of civilizations thus occurs at two levels. At the micro-
level, adjacent groups along the fault lines between civilizations struggle, often violently, over the control of territory and each other. At the macro-level, states from different civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, struggle over the control of international institutions and third parties, and competitively promote their particular political and religious values.
The Fault Lines Between Civilizations
The Fault Lines between civilizations are replacing the political and ideological boundaries of the Cold War as the flash points for crisis and bloodshed. The Cold War began when the Iron Curtain divided Europe politically and ideologically. The Cold War ended with the end of the Iron Curtain. As the ideological division of Europe has disappeared, the cultural division of Europe between Western Christianity, on the one hand, and Orthodox Christianity and Islam, on the other, has reemerged. The most significant dividing line in Europe, as William Wallace has suggested, may well be the eastern boundary of Western Christianity in the year 1500. This line runs along what are now the boundaries between Finland and Russia and between the Baltic states and Russia, cuts through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more Catholic western Ukraine from Orthodox eastern Ukraine, swings westward separating Transylvania from the rest of Romania, and then goes through Yugoslavia almost exactly along the line now separating Croatia and Slovenia from the rest of Yugoslavia. The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic; they are generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and they may now look forward to increasing involvement in a common European economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems. The peoples to the east and south of this line are Orthodox or Muslim; they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe; they are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems. The Velvet Curtain of culture has replaced the Iron Curtain of ideology as the most significant dividing line in Europe. As the events in Yugoslavia show, it is not only a line of difference; it is also at times a line of bloody conflict.
Conflict along the fault line between Western and Islamic civilizations has been going on for 1,300 years. From the eleventh to the thirteenth century the Crusaders attempted with temporary success to bring Christianity and Christian rule to the Holy Land. From the fourteenth to the seventeenth century, the Ottoman Turks reversed the balance, extended their sway over the Middle East and the Balkans, captured Constantinople, and twice laid siege to Vienna. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as Ottoman power declined, Britain, France, and Italy established Western control over most of North Africa and the Middle East.
After World War II, the West, in turn, began to retreat; the colonial empires disappeared; first Arab nationalism and then Islamic fundamentalism manifested themselves; the West became heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf countries for its energy; the oil-rich Muslim countries became money-rich and, when they wished to, weapons-rich. Several wars occurred between Arabs and Israel (created by the West). France fought a bloody and ruthless war in Algeria for most of the 1950s; British and French forces invaded Egypt in 1956; American forces returned to Lebanon, attacked Libya, and engaged in various military encounters with Iran; Arab and Islamic terrorists, supported by at least three Middle Eastern governments, bombed Western planes and installations and seized Western hostages. This warfare between Arabs and the West culminated in 1990, when the United States sent a massive army to the Persian Gulf to defend some Arab countries against aggression by another.
This centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline. It could become more virulent. Many Arab countries, in addition to the oil exporters, are reaching levels of economic and social development where autocratic forms of government become inappropriate and efforts to introduce democracy become stronger. Some openings in Arab political systems have already occurred. The principal beneficiaries of these openings have been Islamist movements.
Those relations are also complicated by demography. The spectacular population growth in Arab countries, particularly in North Africa, has led to increased migration to Western Europe. In Italy, France and Germany, racism is increasingly open, and political reactions and violence against Arab and Turkish migrants have become more intense and more widespread since 1990.
On both sides the interaction between Islam and the West is seen as a clash of civilizations.
Historically, the other great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has been with the pagan and now increasingly Christian black people. It has been reflected in the on-going civil war in the Sudan between Arabs and blacks, the fighting in Chad between Libyan-supported insurgents and the government, the tensions between Orthodox Christians and Muslims in the Horn of Africa, and the political conflicts, recurring riots and communal violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria. The modernization of Africa and the spread of Christianity in Nigeria. The modernization of Africa and the spread of Christianity are likely to enhance the probability of violence along this fault line. Symptomatic of the intensification of this conflict was the Pope John Paul II's speech in Khartoum in February 1993 attacking the actions of the Sudan's Islamist government against the Christian minority there.
Conflict along the fault line between Western and Islamic civilizations has been going on for 1,300 years. From the eleventh to the thirteenth century the Crusaders attempted with temporary success to bring Christianity and Christian rule to the Holy Land. From the fourteenth to the seventeenth century, the Ottoman Turks reversed the balance, extended their sway over the Middle East and the Balkans, captured Constantinople, and twice laid siege to Vienna. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as Ottoman power declined, Britain, France, and Italy established Western control over most of North Africa and the Middle East.
After World War II, the West, in turn, began to retreat; the colonial empires disappeared; first Arab nationalism and then Islamic fundamentalism manifested themselves; the West became heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf countries for its energy; the oil-rich Muslim countries became money-rich and, when they wished to, weapons-rich. Several wars occurred between Arabs and Israel (created by the West). France fought a bloody and ruthless war in Algeria for most of the 1950s; British and French forces invaded Egypt in 1956; American forces returned to Lebanon, attacked Libya, and engaged in various military encounters with Iran; Arab and Islamic terrorists, supported by at least three Middle Eastern governments, bombed Western planes and installations and seized Western hostages. This warfare between Arabs and the West culminated in 1990, when the United States sent a massive army to the Persian Gulf to defend some Arab countries against aggression by another.
This centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline. It could become more virulent. Many Arab countries, in addition to the oil exporters, are reaching levels of economic and social development where autocratic forms of government become inappropriate and efforts to introduce democracy become stronger. Some openings in Arab political systems have already occurred. The principal beneficiaries of these openings have been Islamist movements.
Those relations are also complicated by demography. The spectacular population growth in Arab countries, particularly in North Africa, has led to increased migration to Western Europe. In Italy, France and Germany, racism is increasingly open, and political reactions and violence against Arab and Turkish migrants have become more intense and more widespread since 1990.
On both sides the interaction between Islam and the West is seen as a clash of civilizations.
Historically, the other great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has been with the pagan and now increasingly Christian black people. It has been reflected in the on-going civil war in the Sudan between Arabs and blacks, the fighting in Chad between Libyan-supported insurgents and the government, the tensions between Orthodox Christians and Muslims in the Horn of Africa, and the political conflicts, recurring riots and communal violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria. The modernization of Africa and the spread of Christianity in Nigeria. The modernization of Africa and the spread of Christianity are likely to enhance the probability of violence along this fault line. Symptomatic of the intensification of this conflict was the Pope John Paul II's speech in Khartoum in February 1993 attacking the actions of the Sudan's Islamist government against the Christian minority there.
On the northern border of Islam, conflict has increasingly erupted between Orthodox and Muslim peoples, including the carnage of Bosnia and Sarajevo, the simmering violence between Serb and Albanian, the fragile relation between Bulgarians and their Turkish minority, the tense relations between Russians and Muslims in Central Asia, and the deployment of Russian troops to protect Russian interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Religion reinforces the revival of ethnic identities and restimulates Russian fears about the security of their southern borders.
The conflict of civilizations is deeply rooted elsewhere in Asia. The historic clash between Muslim and Hindu in the subcontinent manifests itself now not only is the rivalry between Pakistan and India but also in intensifying religious strife within India between increasingly militant Hindu groups and India's Muslim minority. The destruction of the Ayodhya mosque in December 1992 brought to the fore the issue of whether India will remain a secular democratic state or become a Hindu one. In East Asia, China has outstanding territorial disputes with most of its neighbors. It has pursued a ruthless policy toward the Buddhist people of Tibet, and it is pursuing an increasingly ruthless policy toward its Muslim minority. With the Cold War over, the underlying differences between China and the United States have reasserted themselves in areas such as human rights, trade and weapons proliferation. These differences are unlikely to moderate.
The same phrase has been applied to the increasingly difficult relations between Japan and the United States. Here cultural difference intensifies economic conflict. People on each side allege racism on the other, but at least on the American side the antipathies are not racial but cultural. The basic values, attitudes, behavioral patterns of the two societies could hardly be more different. The economic issues between the United States and Europe are no less serious than those between the United States and Japan, but they do not have the same political salience and emotional intensity because the differences between American culture and European culture are so much less than those between American civilization and Japanese civilization.
The conflict of civilizations is deeply rooted elsewhere in Asia. The historic clash between Muslim and Hindu in the subcontinent manifests itself now not only is the rivalry between Pakistan and India but also in intensifying religious strife within India between increasingly militant Hindu groups and India's Muslim minority. The destruction of the Ayodhya mosque in December 1992 brought to the fore the issue of whether India will remain a secular democratic state or become a Hindu one. In East Asia, China has outstanding territorial disputes with most of its neighbors. It has pursued a ruthless policy toward the Buddhist people of Tibet, and it is pursuing an increasingly ruthless policy toward its Muslim minority. With the Cold War over, the underlying differences between China and the United States have reasserted themselves in areas such as human rights, trade and weapons proliferation. These differences are unlikely to moderate.
The same phrase has been applied to the increasingly difficult relations between Japan and the United States. Here cultural difference intensifies economic conflict. People on each side allege racism on the other, but at least on the American side the antipathies are not racial but cultural. The basic values, attitudes, behavioral patterns of the two societies could hardly be more different. The economic issues between the United States and Europe are no less serious than those between the United States and Japan, but they do not have the same political salience and emotional intensity because the differences between American culture and European culture are so much less than those between American civilization and Japanese civilization.
The interactions between civilizations vary greatly in the extent to which they are likely to be characterized by violence. Economic competition clearly predominates between the American and European subcivilizations of the West and between both of them and Japan. On the Eurasian continent, however, the proliferation of ethnic conflict, epitomized at the extreme in "ethnic cleansing," has not been totally random. It has been most frequent and most violent between groups belonging to different civilizations. In Eurasia the great historic fault lines between civilizations are once more aflame. This is particularly true along the boundaries of the crescent-shaped Islamic bloc of nations from the bulge of Africa to central Asia. Violence also occurs between Muslims, on the one hand, and Orthodox Serbs in the Balkans, Jews in Israel, Hindus in India, Buddhists in Burma and Catholics in the Philippines. Islam has bloody borders.
The West Versus The Rest
The West is now at an extraordinary peak of power in relation to other civilizations. Its superpower opponent has disappeared from the map. Military conflict among Western states is unthinkable, and Western military power is unrivaled. Apart from Japan, the West faces no economic challenge. It dominates international economic institutions. Global political and security issues are effectively settled by a directorate of the United States, Britain and France, world economic issues by a directorate of the United States, Germany and Japan, all of which maintain extraordinarily close relations with each other to the exclusion of lesser and largely non-Western countries. Decisions made at the U.N. Security Council or in the International Monetary Fund that reflect the interests of the West are presented to the world as reflecting the desires of the world community. The very phrase "the world community" has become the euphemistic collective noun (replacing "the Free World") to give global legitimacy to actions reflecting the interests of the United States and other Western powers. Through the IMF and other international economic institutions, the West promotes its economic interests and imposes on other nations the economic policies it thinks appropriate.
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The West's next confrontation is definitely going to come from the Muslim world. It is in the sweep of the Islamic nations from the Meghreb to Pakistan that the struggle for a new world order will begin." |
Almost invariably Western leaders claim they are acting on behalf of "the world community." One minor lapse occurred during the run-up to the Gulf War. In an interview on "Good Morning America," Dec. 21, 1990, British Prime Minister John Major referred to the actions "the West" was taking against Saddam Hussein. He quickly corrected himself and subsequently referred to "the world community." He was, however, right when he erred.
Western domination of the U.N. Security Council and its decisions, tempered only by occasional abstention by China, produced U.N. legitimation of the West's use of force to drive Iraq out of Kuwait and its elimination of Iraq's sophisticated weapons and capacity to produce such weapons.
That at least is the way in which non-Westerners see the new world, and there is a significant element of truth in their view. Differences in power and struggles for military, economic and institutional power are thus one source of conflict between the West and other civilizations. Differences in culture, that is basic values and beliefs, are a second source of conflict. V. S. Naipaul has argued that Western civilization is the "universal civilization" that "fits all men." At a superficial level much of Western culture has indeed permeated the rest of the world. At a more basic level, however, Western concepts differ fundamentally from those prevalent in other civilizations. Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures. Western efforts to propagate each ideas produce instead a reaction against "human rights imperialism" and a reaffirmation of indigenous values, as can be seen in the support for religious fundamentalism by the younger generation in non-Western cultures. The very notion that there could be a "universal civilization" is a Western idea, directly at odds with the particularism of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what distinguishes one people from another. Indeed, the author of a review of 100 comparative studies of values in different societies concluded that "the values that are most important in the West are least important worldwide." In the political realm, of course, these differences aremost manifest in the efforts of the United States and other Western powers to induce other people to adopt Western ideas concerning democracy and human rights. Modern democratic government originated in the West.
The central axis of world politics in the future is likely to be, in Kishore Mahbubani's phrase, the conflict between "the West and the Rest" and the responses of non-Western civilizations to Western power and values. Those responses generally take one or a combination of three forms. At one extreme, non-Western states can, like Burma and North Korea, attempt to pursue a course of isolation, to insulate their societies from penetration or "corruption" by the West, and, in effect, to opt out of participation in the Western-dominated global community. The costs of this course, however, are high, and few states have pursued it exclusively. A second alternative, the equivalent of "band-wagoning" in international relations theory, is to attempt to join the West and accept its values and institutions. The third alternative is to attempt to "balance" the West by developing economic and military power and cooperating with other non-Western societies against the West, while preserving indigenous values and institutions; in short, to modernize but not to Westernize.
Western domination of the U.N. Security Council and its decisions, tempered only by occasional abstention by China, produced U.N. legitimation of the West's use of force to drive Iraq out of Kuwait and its elimination of Iraq's sophisticated weapons and capacity to produce such weapons.
That at least is the way in which non-Westerners see the new world, and there is a significant element of truth in their view. Differences in power and struggles for military, economic and institutional power are thus one source of conflict between the West and other civilizations. Differences in culture, that is basic values and beliefs, are a second source of conflict. V. S. Naipaul has argued that Western civilization is the "universal civilization" that "fits all men." At a superficial level much of Western culture has indeed permeated the rest of the world. At a more basic level, however, Western concepts differ fundamentally from those prevalent in other civilizations. Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures. Western efforts to propagate each ideas produce instead a reaction against "human rights imperialism" and a reaffirmation of indigenous values, as can be seen in the support for religious fundamentalism by the younger generation in non-Western cultures. The very notion that there could be a "universal civilization" is a Western idea, directly at odds with the particularism of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what distinguishes one people from another. Indeed, the author of a review of 100 comparative studies of values in different societies concluded that "the values that are most important in the West are least important worldwide." In the political realm, of course, these differences aremost manifest in the efforts of the United States and other Western powers to induce other people to adopt Western ideas concerning democracy and human rights. Modern democratic government originated in the West.
The central axis of world politics in the future is likely to be, in Kishore Mahbubani's phrase, the conflict between "the West and the Rest" and the responses of non-Western civilizations to Western power and values. Those responses generally take one or a combination of three forms. At one extreme, non-Western states can, like Burma and North Korea, attempt to pursue a course of isolation, to insulate their societies from penetration or "corruption" by the West, and, in effect, to opt out of participation in the Western-dominated global community. The costs of this course, however, are high, and few states have pursued it exclusively. A second alternative, the equivalent of "band-wagoning" in international relations theory, is to attempt to join the West and accept its values and institutions. The third alternative is to attempt to "balance" the West by developing economic and military power and cooperating with other non-Western societies against the West, while preserving indigenous values and institutions; in short, to modernize but not to Westernize.
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Because in the material world, for the maintenance of equilibrium of the society, sometimes killing is necessary. Just like fight, war. When the enemy has come to your country, you cannot sit idly; you must fight. But that does not mean that you are allowed to kill everyone as you like. That is a special circumstances when fighting must be there. |
The Future
Differences between civilizations are real and important; civilization-consciousness is increasing; conflict between civilizations will supplant ideological and other forms of conflict as the dominant global form of conflict; international relations, historically a game played out within Western civilization, will increasingly be de-Westernized and become a game in which non-Western civilizations are actors and not simply objects; successful political, security and economic international institutions are more likely to develop within civilizations than across civilizations; conflicts between groups in different civilizations will be more frequent, more sustained and more violent than conflicts between groups in the same civilization; violent conflicts between groups in different civilizations are the most likely and most dangerous source of escalation that could lead to global wars; the paramount axis of world politics will be the relations between "the West and the Rest"; the elites in some torn non-Western countries will try to make their countries part of the West, but in most cases face major obstacles to accomplishing this; a central focus of conflict for the immediate future will be between the West and several Islamic-Confucian states.
For the relevant future, there will be no universal civilization, but instead a world of different civilizations, each of which will have to learn to coexist with the others.
(Copyright - Samuel P. Huntington)
For the relevant future, there will be no universal civilization, but instead a world of different civilizations, each of which will have to learn to coexist with the others.
(Copyright - Samuel P. Huntington)
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When you map WMD and terrorism, all roads intersect in Pakistan. |
Impact of Nuclear War
Nuclear bombs wreak far greater damage than conventional explosives. They owe their greater destructive power to immediate blast, heat, and radiation, and to the lingering effects of radioactive fallout. A study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December 2006 asserted that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could produce as many direct fatalities as all of World War II and disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons (ca. 15 kiloton each) on major populated centers, the researchers estimated fatalities from 2.6 million to 16.7 million per country. Also, as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years and could be "catastrophic" according to the researchers.
The combined effects of the Hiroshima bomb killed over half of city residents, turned the lives of many survivors into a lifelong nightmare, and leveled the entire city. Owing to its greater yield, the effects of a typical contemporary bomb are expected to be far greater. Although the aftermath of an all-out nuclear war among major nuclear powers cannot be described with certainty, it would surely be the greatest catastrophe in recorded history. By the late 1960s the number of ICBMs and warheads was so high on both sides that either the USA or USSR was capable of completely destroying the other country's infrastructure. Thus a balance of power system known as mutually assured destruction (MAD) came into being. It was thought that any full-scale exchange between the powers could not produce a victorious side and thus neither would risk initiating one.
In any combatant country, it may kill half the people, afflict many survivors with a variety of radiation-induced diseases, destroy industrial and military capabilities, and contaminate vast tracts of land. Such a war might also lower the quality of the human genetic pool, damage the biosphere, cause a breakdown of national and international economic systems, destroy the health care and prevention system, and move surviving societies in unpredictable directions. Although extinction of the human species is unlikely, it cannot altogether be ruled out. History, psychology, and common sense strongly suggest that nuclear war is more probable than most of us would like to believe. This, and the cataclysmic quality of nuclear war, imply that humanity can scarcely afford another half a century in the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.
The combined effects of the Hiroshima bomb killed over half of city residents, turned the lives of many survivors into a lifelong nightmare, and leveled the entire city. Owing to its greater yield, the effects of a typical contemporary bomb are expected to be far greater. Although the aftermath of an all-out nuclear war among major nuclear powers cannot be described with certainty, it would surely be the greatest catastrophe in recorded history. By the late 1960s the number of ICBMs and warheads was so high on both sides that either the USA or USSR was capable of completely destroying the other country's infrastructure. Thus a balance of power system known as mutually assured destruction (MAD) came into being. It was thought that any full-scale exchange between the powers could not produce a victorious side and thus neither would risk initiating one.
In any combatant country, it may kill half the people, afflict many survivors with a variety of radiation-induced diseases, destroy industrial and military capabilities, and contaminate vast tracts of land. Such a war might also lower the quality of the human genetic pool, damage the biosphere, cause a breakdown of national and international economic systems, destroy the health care and prevention system, and move surviving societies in unpredictable directions. Although extinction of the human species is unlikely, it cannot altogether be ruled out. History, psychology, and common sense strongly suggest that nuclear war is more probable than most of us would like to believe. This, and the cataclysmic quality of nuclear war, imply that humanity can scarcely afford another half a century in the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.
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Civilization... wrecks the planet from seafloor to stratosphere. |
Nuclear Winter
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the predicted climatic effects of nuclear war. Severely cold weather and reduced sunlight for a period of months or years would be caused by detonating large numbers of nuclear weapons, especially over flammable targets such as cities, where large amounts of smoke and soot would be injected into the Earth's stratosphere.
The nuclear winter scenario predicts that the huge fires caused by nuclear explosions (particularly from burning urban areas) would loft massive amounts of dark smoke and aerosol particles from the fires into the upper troposphere / stratosphere, at 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) above the Earth's surface, the absorption of sunlight would further heat the smoke, lifting it into the stratosphere, a layer where the smoke would persist for years, with no rain to wash it out, and would block out much of the sun's light from reaching the surface, causing surface temperatures to drop drastically.
* A minor nuclear war (such as between India and Pakistan or in the Middle East), with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. This is only 0.03% of the explosive power of the current global arsenal.
* A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet.
The nuclear winter scenario predicts that the huge fires caused by nuclear explosions (particularly from burning urban areas) would loft massive amounts of dark smoke and aerosol particles from the fires into the upper troposphere / stratosphere, at 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) above the Earth's surface, the absorption of sunlight would further heat the smoke, lifting it into the stratosphere, a layer where the smoke would persist for years, with no rain to wash it out, and would block out much of the sun's light from reaching the surface, causing surface temperatures to drop drastically.
* A minor nuclear war (such as between India and Pakistan or in the Middle East), with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. This is only 0.03% of the explosive power of the current global arsenal.
* A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet.
Not like this, where a sudra is elected as president, he is not fighting, he is in a safe place, and he is simply directing, "You go and fight. Let me see how you are fighting." No. The king, the ksatriya, he will come forth in the front of fight. That was fight. The king was on the front. The other party, he was also in front. The king is fighting with king, and the soldiers are fighting with soldier. So when the king is killed, then the other party becomes victorious. That was the process of war, not that releasing atomic bomb from the sky and kill so many innocent persons. No, that is not war. So war, if it is fought on principle, on religious principle, that is called dharma-yuddha.
-Srila Prabhupada (Bhagavad-gita 2.13 -- Manila, October 12, 1972)
